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Tropical Storm Harvey Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-08-30 04:54:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 30 Aug 2017 02:54:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2017-08-30 04:53:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 300253 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BURAS LA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSON MS 34 1 3( 4) 11(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 9 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BATON ROUGE LA 34 21 7(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) MORGAN CITY LA 34 29 3(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 13 13(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) LAFAYETTE LA 34 50 11(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) LAFAYETTE LA 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 52 8(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) NEW IBERIA LA 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 16 6(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) LAKE CHARLES 34 54 3(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) LAKE CHARLES 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JASPER TX 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KOUNTZE TX 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 26 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GALVESTON TX 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-30 04:53:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 the center of Harvey was located near 29.0, -93.6 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 39
2017-08-30 04:53:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 300253 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 ...HARVEY STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 93.6W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of Louisiana has been extended eastward to Grand Isle. The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of Texas has been discontinued to the south of Freeport. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Holly Beach to Morgan City A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Bolivar to west of Holly Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Freeport Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings and other products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 12 to 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 93.6 West. Harvey is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A north- northeastward motion is expected later tonight and this general motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey is expected to move inland over the northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning area early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated before the center crosses the coast, but gradual weakening should begin thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches to the north and east of Houston from far east Texas into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals will reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern Louisiana into coastal Mississippi and Alabama. Rainfall associated with Harvey will spread north by mid to late week, with rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches spreading into portions of Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley. A preliminary report from a rain gauge has broken the Texas tropical cyclone rainfall record. The Cedar Bayou gauge, east of Highlands, Texas, has reported 51.88 inches of rain as of 3 PM CDT. This total is higher than the previous record of 48 inches set during tropical cyclone Amelia of 1978 at Medina, Texas. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Holly Beach to Morgan City...2 to 4 ft San Luis Pass to west of Holly Beach including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft Morgan City to Grand Isle...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Wednesday across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southeast Arkansas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 39
2017-08-30 04:52:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 300252 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO GRAND ISLE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED TO THE SOUTH OF FREEPORT. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HOLLY BEACH TO MORGAN CITY A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT BOLIVAR TO WEST OF HOLLY BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF FREEPORT TEXAS TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 93.6W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 93.6W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 93.9W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.8N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 140SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.1N 92.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 32.5N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.3N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 36.8N 85.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 39.0N 81.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 93.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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