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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-09-25 16:41:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 251441 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 Sam has continued to intensify this morning and now has a complete ring of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -70 degrees C surrounding a mostly clear, small eye. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 102 kt, while the combined objective Dvorak intensity estimates from the UW-CIMSS SATCON and ADT is 110 kt. Based on this data, the initial intensity has been increased to 105 kt for this advisory, making Sam a major hurricane. The cyclone remains compact, with hurricane-force winds extending only 20 n mi from the center. The hurricane wobbled to the west over the past few hours. However, the 12-hour motion is west-northwest at 9 kt. There are no changes to the forecast track reasoning. The ridge the north of Sam responsible for its current motion is forecast to shift to the east in a couple of days as a deep-layer trough establishes itself over the western Atlantic. Sam is forecast to turn northwestward around the southwestern periphery of the ridge in about 48 h, and gradually increase its forward speed thereafter. The model guidance continues to be in very good agreement with this scenario, and the latest NHC track forecast is unchanged from the previous one. It should be noted that the westernmost guidance continues to be the ECMWF ensemble mean, whose members have had a low bias in the intensity of Sam, which is likely contributing to the westward track bias. Based on the NHC forecast, and all of the other guidance, Sam is expected to still be well to the east or northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through day 5. Environmental conditions support further strengthening in the short term, and Sam is expected to become a category 4 hurricane by Sunday. In a few days, some southwesterly shear is forecast to develop as the cyclone begins to round the periphery of the subtropical ridge. Although this should cause Sam to weaken, it is still expected to remain a powerful hurricane throughout the 5-day forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near the previous one, which remains slightly above the various consensus solutions through 72 h, and then closely follows the consensus thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 12.9N 47.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 13.3N 48.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 13.7N 49.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 14.3N 50.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 15.0N 51.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 15.8N 53.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 16.6N 54.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 18.4N 56.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.7N 59.8W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-09-25 16:40:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 251440 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 47.6W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 47.6W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.3N 48.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.7N 49.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.3N 50.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 51.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.8N 53.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.6N 54.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 18.4N 56.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.7N 59.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 47.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-09-25 16:40:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SMALL BUT DANGEROUS SAM NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 25 the center of Sam was located near 12.9, -47.6 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 12
2021-09-25 16:40:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 251440 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 ...SMALL BUT DANGEROUS SAM NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 47.6W ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 47.6 West. Sam is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower motion to the west-northwest is expected over the weekend, followed by a turn to the northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sam is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane by Sunday. Some fluctuations in the hurricane's intensity are possible early next week. Sam is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sam are forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles early next week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-09-25 16:40:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 251440 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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