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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 33
2019-09-25 16:59:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 251459 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Jerry remains devoid of deep convection in an environment of dry mid-level air and strong westerly shear. Data from a new scatterometer pass indicate that the maximum winds are no more than 35 kt, and even that value could be generous. The system should remain in a hostile environment for the next few days, and simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest that no significant deep convection will redevelop within it. Therefore the official intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to gradually spin down over the next 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is just slightly below the model consensus. The cyclone has turned toward the east-northeast with some increase in forward speed, and the initial motion estimate is 060/8 kt. Jerry should continue to move east-northeastward, to the south of the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies, for the next day or two. Later in the forecast period, the weak cyclone is expected to turn east-southeastward along the northeastern periphery of a subtropical high pressure area, and dissipate. The official track forecast continues to follow the NOAA corrected consensus guidance rather closely. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 32.0N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 26/0000Z 32.6N 65.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 26/1200Z 33.4N 62.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 34.3N 60.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 34.9N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z 33.8N 54.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2019-09-25 16:59:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 251459 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 66 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) BERMUDA 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-25 16:59:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WEAKENING JERRY APPROACHING BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Jerry was located near 32.0, -66.8 with movement ENE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Public Advisory Number 33
2019-09-25 16:59:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 251459 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...WEAKENING JERRY APPROACHING BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 66.8W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 66.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A continued east-northeasterly motion is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or over Bermuda later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this afternoon and could continue through this evening. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 33
2019-09-25 16:58:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 251458 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 66.8W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 66.8W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 67.4W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.6N 65.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.4N 62.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 34.3N 60.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.9N 58.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.8N 54.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 66.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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