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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-18 12:23:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180901 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a 0431 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass indicate that the cyclone has become better organized during the pass several hours. Although the surface center is still situated near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, the deep convection has expanded in the form of curve bands in the south portion of the cyclone. Based on the increased subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, and the improved microwave presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt making the system the tenth named storm of the season. Even though the shear is low and the sea surface temperatures are warm, GOES-16 sounder data and the GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity models indicate that the environment surrounding the cyclone is still a little dry and stable. Therefore, only gradual intensification is forecast. The shear is forecast to increase after 24 hours or so, to the point where it should slow, or halt development, and this is reflected in the official forecast. It should be noted that the forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt, within the low to mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical storm. This general motion is expected to continue during the next 3 to 4 days. Afterward, a northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge, is expected. The NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory and lies in the middle of the guidance suite, and hedged toward the HCCA multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 14.1N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 14.8N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.8N 54.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 17.9N 57.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 20.2N 64.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-09-18 12:23:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180858 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 47.7W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 47.7W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.8N 49.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.8N 54.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.9N 57.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.2N 64.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.6N 70.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 47.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-09-18 12:23:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 180859 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 8(24) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 6(26) X(26) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 2(37) X(37) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 2(24) X(24) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) X(22) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 1(36) X(36) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 1(22) X(22) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-18 12:23:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY BECOMES THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2019 SEASON... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Jerry was located near 14.1, -47.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 4
2019-09-18 12:23:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180859 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...JERRY BECOMES THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2019 SEASON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 47.7W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 47.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane by the time it moves near the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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