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Hurricane Elsa Public Advisory Number 28
2021-07-07 04:46:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 473 WTNT35 KNHC 070246 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 ...ELSA MOVING NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE TAMPA BAY AREA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 83.2W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward from Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Little River Inlet, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Little River Inlet, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Chokoloskee, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Chokoloskee to south of Egmont Key * West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River * Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later tonight and early Wednesday morning. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in the intensity are possible until landfall occurs on Tuesday. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). Sarasota Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday and along the South Carolina coast Wednesday night and early Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight. Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across the western and central Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday. SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 28
2021-07-07 04:46:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 070246 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA...TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE...FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO SOUTH OF EGMONT KEY * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER * MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER...GEORGIA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 83.2W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 83.2W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 83.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.0N 83.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.4N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.9N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.4N 77.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.3N 73.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.8N 68.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 51.0N 54.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 83.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Elsa Public Advisory Number 27A
2021-07-07 01:58:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 062358 CCA TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 27A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 Corrected to add hurricane wind radii ...ELSA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY... ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 83.1W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the Lower Florida Keys from Key West to the Seven Mile Bridge has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key * West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River * Coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 83.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 10 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later tonight and early Wednesday morning. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Tampa Bay indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional slight strengthening will be possible overnight. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (32 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Buoy 42013, located due north of Elsa, recently measured a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) gusting to 47 mph (76 km/h). A wind gust to 43 mph (69 mph) was recently measured on North Captiva Island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday and are possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight. Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday. SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Latto
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 27
2021-07-06 23:21:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 062120 CCA TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 CORRECTED ADVISORY INITIAL INTENSITY TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF GEORGIA FROM THE MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER TO ALTAMAHA SOUND. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO SOUTH OF EGMONT KEY * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER * COAST OF GEORGIA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARYS RIVER TO ALTAMAHA SOUND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA...TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 83.0W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 83.0W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 83.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.5N 83.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.0N 82.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.3N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.8N 78.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.4N 75.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 40.5N 71.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 48.5N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 27
2021-07-06 22:38:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 616 WTNT35 KNHC 062038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 ...ELSA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 83.0W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Georgia from the Mouth of St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys east of the Seven Mile Bridge has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key * West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River * Coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 83.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a generally northward motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts, and Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane before making landfall. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Buoy 42023 recently measured a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) gusting to 78 mph (126 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday and are possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight. Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday. SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Brown/Papin
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