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Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-11-15 15:35:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 151435 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 78.5W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 78.5W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 78.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.8N 79.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.2N 81.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N 82.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.4N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.3N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 13.8N 89.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 78.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Public Advisory Number 23
2020-11-15 15:30:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 151430 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 ...THETA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 18.2W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 18.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a faster north or north-northeast motion is forecast for a day or two until the low dissipates. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The low should gradually decay and dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high- seas-forecast/. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-11-15 15:30:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 151430 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 18.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 18.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 18.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.9N 18.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.5N 16.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 18.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-11-15 12:47:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 151147 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 700 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 ...IOTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 77.8W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 77.8 West. Iota is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days until landfall occurs in Central America. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Monday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Iota is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches (200 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm). WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia by late tonight with tropical storm conditions expected beginning this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres this afternoon or evening with hurricane conditions possible there tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown/Blake
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Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 8
2020-11-15 09:42:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150842 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 ...IOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 77.3W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 77.3 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days until landfall occurs in Central America. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Monday night. Reports from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Iota is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The latest data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches (200 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm). WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia by late tonight with tropical storm conditions expected beginning this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres this afternoon or evening with hurricane conditions possible there tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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