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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-11-11 15:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 818 WTNT25 KNHC 111443 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 33.3W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 33.3W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 33.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.3N 31.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.7N 29.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.1N 27.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 25.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.8N 23.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.9N 22.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.2N 20.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 34.7N 19.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 33.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 44A
2020-11-11 12:43:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 111143 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 44A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 700 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE ETA A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 83.8W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along portions of the Florida Peninsula today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 83.8 West. Eta is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early Friday. Reports from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is expected to be near or at hurricane strength tonight as it approaches the west coast of Florida, with rapid weakening expected after landfall on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A University of South Florida COMPS buoy just southeast of Eta's center recently measured a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 65 mph 104 (km/h). Doppler radars indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are located just offshore the southwestern coast of Florida. Across the lower Florida Keys, a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h) were recently reported at Sand Key. The minimum central pressure recently measured by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) on Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). West Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Friday. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area by early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba for the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 44
2020-11-11 09:58:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 110857 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AS ETA INTENSIFIES FURTHER... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 84.1W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along portions of the Florida Peninsula today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 84.1 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is expected to be near or at hurricane strength tonight as it approaches the west coast of Florida, with rapid weakening expected after landfall on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) on Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). West Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Friday. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area by early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by Wednesday afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba for the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 44
2020-11-11 09:55:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 110855 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO YANKEETOWN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO YANKEETOWN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DRY TORTUGAS * BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.1W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.1W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 84.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.9N 83.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.2N 82.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.2N 81.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.9N 79.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 84.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 11/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 6
2020-11-11 09:55:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 110855 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 ...THETA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 34.7W ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 34.7 West. Theta is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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