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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-11-11 09:54:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 110854 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 34.7W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 70SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 34.7W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 35.1W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.9N 33.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 75SE 110SW 165NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.8N 29.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.3N 26.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.8N 24.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 85NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.1N 23.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 32.5N 21.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 34.0N 20.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 34.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 43A

2020-11-11 06:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 110539 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 43A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...ETA'S RAIN BANDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 84.4W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along portions of the Florida Gulf coast today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 84.4 West. Eta is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast today, and Eta could be near hurricane strength late this morning. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night or early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Buoy 42026 from the University of South Florida located about 75 miles northeast of the center of Eta recently reported sustained winds of 36 mph (57 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (86 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on earlier NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall overnight: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). South Florida: Isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 15 to 20 inches. Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday: West Florida into the eastern Florida Panhandle and portions of North Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through tonight, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida tonight, especially across previously inundated areas, and eventually across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida through Friday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by late Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba overnight. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 43

2020-11-11 03:53:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 110253 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT ETA IS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND STORM SURGE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 84.5W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach to the Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf coast from north of the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along portions of the Florida Gulf coast early Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 84.5 West. Eta is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida on Wednesday, approach the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through Wednesday, and Eta could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday morning. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night or early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance aircraft data is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall through tonight: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). South Florida: Isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 15 to 20 inches. Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday: West Florida into the eastern Florida Panhandle and portions of North Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through tonight, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida tonight, especially across previously inundated areas, and eventually across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida Wednesday through Friday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas overnight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by late Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 5

2020-11-11 03:44:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 300 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 110244 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 ...THETA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES OVER THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 35.5W ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 35.5 West. Theta is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown

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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-11-11 03:44:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 110244 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 35.5W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 70SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 35.5W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 35.8W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.7N 34.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 75SE 110SW 165NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.1N 32.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 115SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.5N 30.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.0N 27.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.7N 25.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 25SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 85NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.2N 23.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 32.8N 21.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 34.5N 20.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 35.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN

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