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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 8
2020-09-14 22:48:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 142048 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...KARINA AT PEAK INTENSITY OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 118.8W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 118.8 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next 24 hours, with gradual weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kodama
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-09-14 22:46:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 142046 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 118.8W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 200SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 118.8W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.4N 119.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 150SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.9N 122.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.0N 125.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 118.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 14
2020-09-14 22:43:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 142043 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...SALLY A LITTLE STRONGER, ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TONIGHT... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 87.4W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward along the coast of the Florida panhandle to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. The Hurricane Warning has been extended eastward along the coast of the Florida Panhandle to Navarre. The Tropical Storm Warning west of Morgan City Louisiana has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida Panhandle has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Navarre Florida * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 87.4 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northward turn is expected by Tuesday, and a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on late Tuesday or Wednesday. Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight and early Tuesday and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL including Mobile Bay...6-9 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-2 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area late tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions expected to begin within the warning area this evening. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to move farther inland early Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through tonight over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. The threat of tornadoes is expected to increase on Tuesday in these areas, as well as over parts of southern Mississippi and extreme southeast Louisiana. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-09-14 22:43:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 142043 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE. THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NAVARRE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 87.4W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 87.4W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 87.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.2N 88.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.7N 88.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 30.4N 88.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.3N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 32.2N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.9N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 33.5N 83.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 87.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 32
2020-09-14 22:40:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 142040 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...PAULETTE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 63.8W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 63.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday afternonn through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely through Tuesday night as Paulette accelerates northeastward to east-northeastward. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusty winds on Bermuda should persist into the evening hours. STORM SURGE: Storm surge and associated coastal flooding and rough surf conditions on Bermuda should begin to subside this evening. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through this evening, with rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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