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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-14 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 142031 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 44.0W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 44.0W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 43.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.6N 45.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.5N 47.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.4N 49.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.6N 50.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.9N 52.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.3N 53.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 24.5N 58.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 44.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Remnants of Rene Forecast Advisory Number 31
2020-09-14 22:31:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 142031 TCMAT3 REMNANTS OF RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 49.3W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 49.3W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 49.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 13A
2020-09-14 19:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 141751 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...SALLY MEANDERING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 87.1W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida Border to Indian Pass Florida * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 87.1 West. Sally has been meandering over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, but a west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) should resume later today. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest is forecast tonight and a northward turn is expected sometime on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, approach southeastern Louisiana tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL...6-9 ft Mobile Bay...5-8 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-6 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-2 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today, and are expected to begin within the warning area later today. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast move farther inland early Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and western Carolinas Thursday into Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across this region. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi, Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 31A
2020-09-14 19:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 141742 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 200 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...PAULETTE STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND RAIN CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 64.4W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Hurricane Warning for Bermuda with a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 64.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should continue into the early evening hours. A turn toward the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday night through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (170 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely through Tuesday night as Paulette accelerates northeastward to east- northeastward. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions on Bermuda should persist into the mid to late afternoon hours. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves into this afternoon. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-09-14 18:30:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1630 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 141629 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 1630 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 87.0W AT 14/1630Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 20SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 87.0W AT 14/1630Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 86.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 28.8N 87.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.2N 88.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.8N 89.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.8N 88.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.8N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.6N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 33.1N 84.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 87.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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