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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 10
2021-09-14 16:52:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 141452 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 ...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 95.3W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF HOUSTON TEXAS ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of High Island, Texas. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Port Bolivar, Texas. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued east of Cameron, Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Bolivar Texas to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Cameron Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 95.3 West. Nicholas is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion should continue today. The storm should move more slowly toward the east-northeast by tonight, and then turn eastward on Wednesday over Louisiana. Little motion is anticipated on Thursday. NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days as Nicholas moves farther inland, and the storm is forecast to become a tropical depression by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A TCOON observing station at Texas Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, recently measured a 1-minute sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (81 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches) based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches across southern Louisiana. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across these regions. Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and Mississippi. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Hurricane Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Bolivar, TX to Cameron, LA including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Port Aransas, TX to Port Bolivar, TX...1-3 ft Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...1-3 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the Louisiana coast into this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions in the warning area across the upper Texas coast will diminish this afternoon as Nicholas moves farther to the northeast. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into tonight across southern Louisiana. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 9A
2021-09-14 13:54:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 141153 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 ...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 95.5W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF HOUSTON TEXAS ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF BEAUMONT TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of San Luis Pass. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of San Luis Pass. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Cameron Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of Nicholas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and that general motion should continue this morning. The storm should move more slowly to the northeast later today, and then turn eastward by Wednesday over Louisiana. Little motion is anticipated on Thursday. Data from NOAA Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Nicholas should weaken further today as it moves farther inland, and the storm is forecast to become a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, a Weatherflow station near Galveston Bay, Texas, reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h). Farther to the east, an observing station at Texas Point recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches) based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches across central to southern Louisiana. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across these regions. Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and Mississippi. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Hurricane Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5 ft High Island, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA...2-4 ft Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX...1-3 ft Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...1-3 ft Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the warning area across the upper Texas coast through this morning, and begin along the Louisiana coast later this morning. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today along the upper Texas Coast and southern Louisiana. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Brown
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 9
2021-09-14 10:55:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 140855 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 ...NICHOLAS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 95.6W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF HOUSTON TEXAS ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF FREEPORT TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Sabine Pass to Cameron, Louisiana. The Hurricane Warning is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from Matagorda to Freeport. The Storm Surge Warning from Port O'Connor to Sargent including Matagorda Bay has been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning is discontinued from south of Matagorda to Port O'Connor. The Hurricane Watch is discontinued from Freeport to San Luis Pass. The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued from Port O'Connor to North of Port Aransas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sargent to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Matagorda to Cameron A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of Nicholas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 95.6 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm should move more slowly to the northeast later today and then eastward by Wednesday over Louisiana. Little motion is anticipated on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Nicholas should weaken further today and is forecast to become a tropical depression by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A NOAA station at Galveston Bay, Texas recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) gusting to 68 mph (109 km/h). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches across central to southern Louisiana. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across these regions. Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and Mississippi. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Hurricane Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sargent, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5 ft High Island, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA...2-4 ft Port Aransas, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...1-3 ft Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the warning area across Texas coasts through this morning and start along the Louisiana coast by afternoon. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today and tonight along the upper Texas Coast and southern Louisiana. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-09-14 10:54:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 140854 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0900 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SABINE PASS TO CAMERON...LOUISIANA. THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MATAGORDA TO FREEPORT. THE STORM SURGE WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT INCLUDING MATAGORDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM SOUTH OF MATAGORDA TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FROM FREEPORT TO SAN LUIS PASS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SARGENT TO SABINE PASS INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MATAGORDA TO CAMERON A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICHOLAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 95.6W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 95.6W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.9N 95.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 30.3N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.4N 93.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 30.4N 92.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.5N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 95.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Nicholas Public Advisory Number 8A
2021-09-14 07:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 140553 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 ...NICHOLAS MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST... ...HEAVY RAIN, HIGH WINDS AND DANGEROUS SURGE ONGOING... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 95.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning from Port Aransas, Texas to Port O'Connor, Texas including Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port O'Connor Texas to Sabine Pass * Galveston Bay and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port O'Connor to Freeport Texas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Freeport to San Luis Pass Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Port Aransas to Port O'Connor * North of Freeport to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of Nicholas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Hurricane Nicholas made landfall near 1230 AM CDT (0530 UTC) on eastern part of the Matagorda Peninsula, about 10 miles (15 km) west-southwest of Sargent Beach, Texas. At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicholas was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 95.7 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and a slower motion by late today and an even slower eastward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas is expected to move slowly over southeastern Texas today and tonight, and over southwestern Louisiana on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days as Nicholas moves over land. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). A station at San Luis Pass, Texas recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 56 mph (91 km/h) gusting to 67 mph (107 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches) based on reconnaissance dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches, across the upper Texas coastal areas into Wednesday. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast into far southwestern Louisiana. Across interior southeast Texas into southern-central Louisiana and southern Mississippi, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts near 10 inches are expected into Thursday. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding. The potential for minor to isolated major river flooding exists across the entire region especially in smaller river basins and urban areas. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX...3-5 ft Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay...3-5 ft High Island, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA...2-4 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...1-3 ft Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...1-3 ft Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft Corpus Christi Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area across the central and upper Texas coasts through this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area for the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area for the next few hours. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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