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Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 3
2021-09-19 14:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 191 WTNT31 KNHC 191247 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Peter Special Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 ...CENTER OF PETER FOUND FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST... ...STILL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 56.0W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM AST (1300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 56.0 West. Peter is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, Peter is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a slow weakening trend by late Monday and on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (170 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer bands south of the Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico late Sunday into Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands Sunday night and Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-19 14:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 192 WTNT21 KNHC 191247 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 1300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.0W AT 19/1300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.0W AT 19/1300Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 53.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.2N 57.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.3N 58.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.2N 61.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.3N 63.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.6N 65.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N 65.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 56.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Public Advisory Number 1
2021-09-19 10:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 123 WTNT32 KNHC 190836 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 800 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 28.2W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 28.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward northwest is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected for the next couple of days, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or on Monday. By Tuesday, environmental conditions are is expected to become less conducive for development, and the system is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-09-19 10:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190836 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 28.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 28.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 27.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.4N 29.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.5N 31.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.6N 33.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.7N 34.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.7N 36.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N 37.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.6N 39.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 28.1N 41.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 28.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-19 10:35:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 190835 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE SIXTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 53.5W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 53.5 West. Peter is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur by this afternoon, with that motion continuing into Wednesday. On the forecast track, Peter is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a slow weakening trend by late Monday and on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer bands south of the Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico late Sunday into Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands Sunday night and Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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