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Summary for Tropical Depression Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-11 04:39:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED... As of 9:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 the center of Olaf was located near 24.7, -113.3 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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olaf
Tropical Depression Olaf Public Advisory Number 14
2021-09-11 04:39:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 110239 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Olaf Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...OLAF WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 113.3W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for Baja California Sur Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Olaf was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 113.3 West. The depression is now moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the southwest is expected by Saturday night, with this motion continuing into early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low tomorrow morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Olaf will affect portions of the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through this evening, and portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur through tomorrow. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-09-11 04:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 110238 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 113.3W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 113.3W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.4N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.6N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.7N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.7N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.0N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 20.6N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Depression Mindy Graphics
2021-09-09 22:40:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 20:40:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 20:40:39 GMT
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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-09 22:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 092039 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 The latest infrared satellite imagery indicates that Mindy has been devoid of convection near its center since about the time it emerged over the Atlantic this morning. Deep convection is present well to the northeast of Mindy along a surface trough that extends northeastward from the cyclone. A late morning ASCAT pass showed a large area of 25 to 30 kt winds southeast of the center. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on this data. The ASCAT data and surface observations indicate that the circulation has become less well-defined, with barely any east winds observed on the north side. Mindy is located in an environment of strong south to southwesterly vertical wind shear. Over the next 24 h, the shear is expected to become even stronger. The latest forecast calls for Mindy to become post-tropical on Friday and dissipate Friday night. However, based on the lack on convection and the deteriorating wind structure, it is quite possible that dissipation could occur much sooner than forecast. Mindy continues moving quickly off to the east-northeast, with a motion of 075/20 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. Mindy is forecast to continue moving east-northeastward at a similar speed for the next 24 h near the southern portion of a deep-layer trough moving across the eastern United States. Once the trough begins to lift northeastward, Mindy should slow down a little on Friday. The NHC forecast is a little south of and slightly faster than the previous forecast, mainly due to the farther south initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 32.0N 78.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 32.9N 74.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 33.8N 71.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen
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