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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-10 04:48:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 483 WTNT43 KNHC 100248 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 The structure of Mindy this evening has become quite diffuse, with a linear band of convection mostly associated with a prominent outflow boundary emanating away from the system. The last-light visible low-level cloud motions gave the impression that Mindy was opening up into a trough, with southwesterly flow ahead and northeasterly flow immediately behind the estimated center. Indeed, a ASCAT-A pass valid at 0002 UTC suggested that Mindy no longer has closed cyclonic flow on its northeast side, with a lack of easterly wind vectors in this sector of the system. In addition, a rapidly advancing frontal boundary has already moved off of the Carolina coast and will soon be merging with the leftover vort-max associated with Mindy. The accumulation of all this evidence indicates that Mindy no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, and this will be the final advisory on the system. The post-tropical remains of Mindy have continued to accelerate to the east-northeast this evening at 070/25 kt, moving almost as quickly as the the maximum sustained winds, which is another reason why the circulation is likely no longer closed. This motion should continue for the next 12-24 hours with a gradual slowdown until what remains of the circulation becomes indistinguishable from the frontal boundary it is becoming embedded in. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 32.5N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 10/1200Z 33.2N 71.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 11/0000Z 34.1N 67.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Graphics
2021-09-10 04:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 02:46:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 02:46:39 GMT
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy (AT3/AL132021)
2021-09-10 04:46:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MINDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL AS IT ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Mindy was located near 32.5, -75.0 with movement ENE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Public Advisory Number 6
2021-09-10 04:46:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100246 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...MINDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL AS IT ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 75.0W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 75.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown until the system dissipates Friday night or Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening of the winds is expected before the system dissipates. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-09-10 04:46:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 100246 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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