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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-31 22:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 312043 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 76.5W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 76.5W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 76.9W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.8N 75.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 34.9N 72.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 35.8N 69.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.7N 67.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.6N 63.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.2N 60.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 39.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 41.5N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 76.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-08-30 22:34:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 302034 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-08-30 22:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 302033 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 113.3W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 113.3W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 113.3W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.7N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.8N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 113.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-08-30 16:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 301436 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Iselle Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020 Iselle is skirting the line between tropical cyclone and remnant low, producing a small amount of deep convection during the past few hours. While this isn't particularly organized thunderstorm activity, for now it is enough to keep advisories going another 6 hours. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, near the latest TAFB T-number. Iselle is still expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today due to persistent easterly shear and a dry and stable environment. Model guidance all show the system becoming a trough by Tuesday, so the dissipation phase has been pushed ahead from the last forecast. The guidance also remains in good agreement on a northward track today, followed by a north-northwest turn overnight. The track is shifted a bit to the east because of a more eastward initial position, otherwise it is unchanged. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 23.0N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 24.0N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 31/1200Z 25.0N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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depression
Tropical Depression Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-08-30 16:35:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 301435 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
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