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Tropical Depression Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-08-30 10:31:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 300830 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 114.0W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 114.0W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 114.1W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.3N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.2N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.9N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 114.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-08-30 04:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300231 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Most of the deep convection associated with Iselle has been displaced to the west of the center due to strong easterly shear caused by a large upper-level anticyclone to the northeast. Based on the decreased organization, it is assumed that the cyclone has been gradually spinning down this evening, and the current intensity estimate is set at 35 kt. Although the shear may relax a bit in a day or so, Iselle will be moving over increasingly cooler waters during that time. Therefore, continued weakening is anticipated, and the system will likely degenerate into a remnant low in 12 to 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance. The cyclone has been moving north-northeastward, at around 020/8 kt, on the west side of a mid-level high pressure area. The weakening and increasingly shallow system should gradually turn to the left under the influence of the lower-level flow. The official track forecast is about in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 21.8N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 22.9N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 23.9N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/1200Z 24.5N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0000Z 25.0N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1200Z 25.5N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 15
2020-08-30 04:31:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 ...ISELLE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 114.2W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 114.2 West. Iselle is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight and this general motion should continue through Sunday, followed by a turn to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Iselle is expected to weaken to a depression overnight, and to degenerate into a remnant low within the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Iselle and a large area of southwesterly winds to its south are affecting portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico, as well as the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells are expected to continue for the next couple of days and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-08-30 04:31:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 300231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-08-30 04:30:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 300230 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 114.2W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 114.2W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.9N 114.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 23.9N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.5N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.0N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.5N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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