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Tropical Storm Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-16 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 162031 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The deep convection has decreased in coverage over the cyclone today, but the center remains underneath clouds tops of about -60 C. The initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, but this may be a little generous based on late-arriving ASCAT overpass data. There is no change to the forecast intensity philosophy. Fausto has crossed the 26 C SST isotherm and will be heading towards waters cooler than 24 C by Monday morning. Therefore a weakening trend is expected to begin soon. The deep convection should decrease and the cyclone is forecast degenerate to a remnant low Monday night. Fausto has accelerated and is now moving northwestward at around 17 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the cyclone loses its convection, it should turn west or just south of west as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance and is little changed from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 21.5N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 23.2N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 24.1N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 24.3N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 23.9N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 23.2N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Fausto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-08-16 22:31:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 162031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Fausto Public Advisory Number 4
2020-08-16 22:30:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 162030 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fausto Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 ...FAUSTO EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 121.0W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 121.0 West. Fausto is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected continue through tonight. A turn to the west, with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to occur later on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin tonight, and Fausto is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Monday morning, and degenerate into a remnant low Monday night Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Fausto Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-16 22:30:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 162030 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 121.0W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 121.0W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 120.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.2N 123.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.1N 126.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.3N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.9N 130.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.2N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 121.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-08-16 16:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 161451 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Josephine Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 Strong vertical wind shear has continued to take a toll on Josephine, with the exposed center continuing to race well ahead of the primary convective mass. A new burst of convection has developed a little closer to the center within the past couple of hours, but with the continued loss of organization the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt. With strong shear forecast to prevail over the cyclone during the next few days, continued weakening is expected and Josephine will likely become a remnant low within 24 hours or dissipate by opening into a trough of low pressure. Although the shear could lessen somewhat in a few days, it appears that there will not be much left of the system to take advantage of those conditions. As a result, the new NHC forecast calls for the dissipation of the remnant low by 96 hours. Josephine jogged a bit westward overnight, but the longer term motion is 285/11 kt. The system is forecast to turn northwestward over the next 24-36 hours as the ridge over the western Atlantic weakens due to an approaching trough of low pressure. As the low- to mid-level trough moves offshore of the southeastern United States, this should cause Josephine or it remnants to turn northward on Tuesday. The updated track forecast is a little to the left of the previous advisory, primarily to more southward and westward initial position, however, it still lies near the middle of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 20.4N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 21.3N 66.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 22.5N 67.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 23.9N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 25.5N 69.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 26.8N 69.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 28.2N 68.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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