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Tropical Depression Josephine Public Advisory Number 20
2020-08-16 16:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 161450 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Josephine Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 ...JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO LOSE ORGANIZATION AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 65.0W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NW OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Josephine was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 65.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected by tonight, with Josephine or its remnants forecast to slow down and recurve toward the north and northeast on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Josephine is expected to become a remnant low or dissipate by Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-08-16 16:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 161450 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 65.0W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 65.0W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 64.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.3N 66.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 22.5N 67.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.9N 69.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 25.5N 69.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 26.8N 69.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 28.2N 68.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 65.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-08-16 16:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 161450 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-08-16 16:47:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 161446 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 At the moment the depression is nearly devoid of convection, except for a very small weakening burst over 100 n mi from the center. In fact, there has not been any deep convection within 50 n mi of the center since yesterday, and this convection has been sporadic. The available Dvorak T-numbers only support 25 kt. However, given that an earlier ASCAT overpass had a few vectors with higher values, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The depression is barely fitting the definition of a tropical cyclone due to the lack of persistent organized deep convection. If the system is not able to generate sustained organized convection, it could become a post-tropical remnant low at any time. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest this lack of persistent convection may continue, and therefore the official forecast no longer keeps the system a tropical cyclone through 5 days. The official intensity forecast is generally in line with the intensity consensus aids throughout the 5 day time period, but makes the cyclone post-tropical in a couple of days. It should be noted that the timing of the system becoming post-tropical is highly uncertain and could happen much sooner or later than indicated. The cyclone is moving slowly north-northwestward at 3 kt. A weak low- to -mid level ridge is forecast to build north of the cyclone over the next couple of days. This should result in a slow motion while the depression turns to the northwest, then west. By midweek, a more west-southwestward motion is anticipated. The latest NHC forecast is is in between the previous one and the track consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 13.7N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 14.1N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 14.3N 134.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 14.4N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 14.3N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 13.9N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 13.4N 137.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z 12.8N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z 12.2N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-16 16:46:06| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020
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