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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-08-10 04:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100235 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Trends in satellite imagery over the past several hours indicate that Elida continues to quickly increase in organization. There has been an expanding central dense overcast, with the center of circulation presumed to be underneath cloud tops of about -70 C. Satellite intensity estimates TAFB and SAB as well as those from UW-CIMSS support increasing the initial intensity to 55 kt. Environmental conditions favor rapid intensification over the next 24 h or so. The latest SHIPS RI index indicates a better than 30 percent chance of Elida strengthening by 30 kt in the next 24 h, and based on the convective trends, the official forecast closely follows this guidance. By 48 h, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm, and begin to enter a progressively drier and more stable atmospheric environment. This should cause steady weakening to occur. By 96 h, Elida is forecast to have been over waters cooler than 25 C for nearly 36 h. And as a result, the simulated satellite imagery by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models all indicate that the deep convection will dissipate by that time. Therefore, Elida is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the 96 h forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from from previous one, is close to the HCCA model intensity guidance for the next couple of days, then trends towards the SHIPS guidance thereafter. Elida continues to move west-northwestward at 13 k, steered by a mid-level ridge extending from northern Mexico to the east Pacific. This pattern is forecast to remain in place for the next few days. After that time, a slower westward or west-southwestward motion is expected as the weakening cyclone is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The model track forecasts are in good agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC forecast track is in the middle of the consensus track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 17.8N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 18.7N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 19.6N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.3N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 21.0N 117.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 22.1N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 22.0N 124.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 15/0000Z 21.1N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 5
2020-08-10 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 100233 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 ...ELIDA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 107.4W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 107.4 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane by Monday morning. Steady weakening is forecast begin Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-08-10 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 100233 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 107.4W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 107.4W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.7N 109.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.6N 112.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.3N 114.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 117.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.1N 121.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 22.0N 124.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 21.1N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 107.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-08-10 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 100233 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 20 46(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 110W 50 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 110W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 8 82(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 53(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 29(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA CLARION 34 1 4( 5) 27(32) 4(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 X 6( 6) 76(82) 9(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 20N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 50(51) 12(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 28(28) 12(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 29(43) 1(44) X(44) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-09 22:41:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 092040 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Elida appears to be on a strengthening trend. Visible satellite images indicate that the storm's banding features are becoming more tightly wrapped and symmetric around the center. An ASCAT pass from around 16Z showed maximum winds near 40 kt, but since the storm continues to organize, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 45 kt. This intensity estimate is in agreement with the 18Z Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, but slightly below the latest SATCON and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Elida is likely on its way to becoming a hurricane as the environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening during the next 36 to 48 hours. Now that the storm appears to have a well-defined inner core and outer bands, rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours with some additional intensification expected until it reaches cooler waters in a couple of days. After 48 hours, cooler waters and drier air should cause a gradual decay of the system, and Elida is expected to steadily weaken and become a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance, near HCCA, in the short term, but ends near the middle of the guidance envelope at the longer range times. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt. The track forecast appears fairly straightforward. A mid-level ridge that stretches across northern Mexico and over a portion of the east Pacific should cause Elida to move generally west-northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next few days. After that time, a slower westward or west-southwestward motion is expected as the weakening cyclone is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The models are in fairly good agreement, and this forecast lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.0N 106.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 18.9N 111.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 19.6N 113.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 20.3N 116.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 21.6N 120.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 21.9N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 21.3N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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