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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 2
2020-08-12 04:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 120232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 41.5W ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 41.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast to begin Wednesday night and continue through the rest of the week. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-08-12 04:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 120232 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-08-12 04:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 120231 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 41.5W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 41.5W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 40.9W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.3N 43.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.8N 45.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 41.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-08-11 22:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 112035 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Elida has not changed significantly in organization since the last advisory, as the storm continues to have a small cloud-filled eye inside a symmetric central dense overcast. Various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are slightly lower than the previous advisory, but they have not decreased enough to justify lowering the initial intensity yet. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/13 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement than Elida should move west- northwestward for the next 36 h or so. After that, the guidance is in better agreement that Elida should turn northwestward with a decrease in forward speed due to interaction with an upper-level low off of the coast of California. There is little change to the forecast track, which lies near the various consensus models, from the previous advisory. Elida is moving toward colder sea surface temperatures, with the center forecast to be over 23C water in 24 h and 22C in 48 h. This should lead to rapid weakening beginning in the next 6-12 h, with the global models forecasting the system to weaken to a trough by 72 h. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and calls for Elida to drop below hurricane strength in just over 24 h, degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h, and dissipate by 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 22.1N 115.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 22.7N 117.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 23.6N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 24.6N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 25.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/0600Z 26.7N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-08-11 22:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 112035 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 115.4W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 115.4W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.7N 117.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.6N 119.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.6N 120.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 45SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.7N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 115.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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