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Tropical Depression Dolly Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-06-24 10:31:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 348 FONT14 KNHC 240831 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 0900 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Dolly Public Advisory Number 8
2020-06-24 10:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Jun 24 2020 164 WTNT34 KNHC 240831 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Dolly Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 AM AST Wed Jun 24 2020 ...DOLLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.7N 59.0W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Dolly was located near latitude 41.7 North, longitude 59.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast as Dolly moves over colder waters, and the system is expected to become post-tropical later today. The remnant low should then dissipate on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Dolly Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-06-24 10:30:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240830 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 0900 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 59.0W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 100SE 110SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 59.0W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 59.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 43.1N 57.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 45.1N 53.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.7N 59.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Dolly Public Advisory Number 7
2020-06-24 04:50:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240250 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 ...DOLLY LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.5N 60.3W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located near latitude 40.5 North, longitude 60.3 West. Dolly is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast as Dolly moves over colder waters, and the system is expected to become post-tropical on Wednesday. The remnant low should then dissipate by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-06-24 04:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240232 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 Dolly's deep convection is diminishing as the cyclone begins to move over colder waters to the north of the Gulf Stream. Given the decreased convection, it is assumed that the circulation is gradually spinning down and the current intensity is therefore estimated to be near 35 kt. This is also consistent with data from a recent scatterometer overpass. Within 24 hours, the system will be moving over SSTs of around 15 deg C, and the cyclone should have degenerated into remnant low devoid of significant convection. The global models forecast the system to open up into a trough in 36 hours or so and the official forest calls for dissipation by 48 hours, if not sooner. The cyclone continues to move east-northeastward, or around 060/9 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning, Dolly is expected to turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed as it moves with the southwesterly mid-level flow to the southeast of the main branch of mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast lies close to the previous one and is on top of the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA, track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 40.5N 60.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 41.8N 58.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 43.9N 55.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1200Z 45.8N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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