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Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-06-23 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 230234 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 0300 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 64.6W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 64.6W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 65.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 39.2N 62.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 40.3N 60.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 42.0N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 44.0N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 46.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.7N 64.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-06-22 22:45:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 276 WTNT44 KNHC 222045 TCDAT4 Subtropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 The non-tropical low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has been following for the past couple of days off of the U.S. east coast has developed enough organized convection near the center to be classified as subtropical depression. The subtropical status is due to the low-level circulation center being co-located beneath an upper-level cold low as seen in water vapor imagery. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on earlier ASCAT wind data indicating numerous surface wind vectors of 26-28 kt in the southern semicircle, along with a TAFB subtropical satellite classification of ST1.5/25-30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 075/08 kt. Subtropical Depression Four is located north of a deep-layer ridge and is being influenced by weak westerly mid- to upper-level flow. The cyclone is forecast by all of the global and regional models to move east-northeastward tonight and then turn northeastward on Tuesday. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected Tuesday night through Thursday when the system is forecast to be located over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic. The cyclone should be absorbed by a larger extratropical low or dissipate on Thursday. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the simple consensus aids TVCN and GFEX and the NOAA-HCCA corrected consensus. The cyclone is beginning to move over a ridge of higher SSTs of 26.0-26.5 deg C in the northern extent of the Gulf Stream. The forecast track takes the subtropical depression down the length of the axis of warmer water during the next 12-18 h, so there is the potential for the cyclone to become a subtropical storm during that time, especially given the large pool of cold air aloft, with 200-mb temperatures of near -58 deg C and 500-mb temperatures of about -10 deg C which is creating a lot of instability. After the system moves off of the warm ridge and into sharply cooler water around 36 hours or so, gradual weakening is expected, with transition to an extratropical cyclone forecast by 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the consensus models ICON, IVCN, and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 38.2N 65.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 38.5N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 39.0N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 40.5N 59.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 42.5N 56.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0600Z 45.0N 53.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/1800Z 47.8N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Subtropical Depression Four Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-06-22 22:40:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 22 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 222040 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 2100 UTC MON JUN 22 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Subtropical Depression Four Public Advisory Number 1
2020-06-22 22:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 222040 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Four Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST... ...FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.2N 65.7W ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Four was located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 65.7 West. The subtropical depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue through tonight. A motion toward the northeast is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight and early Tuesday, and the subtropical depression could briefly become a subtropical storm. Slow weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday afternoon or evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-06-22 22:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 22 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 222040 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 2100 UTC MON JUN 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 65.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 65.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 66.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 38.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 39.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 40.5N 59.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 42.5N 56.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 45.0N 53.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 47.8N 50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.2N 65.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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