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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 6A
2021-09-09 07:56:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 090556 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 1200 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 108.2W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas to Todos Santos A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 108.2 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwest to north-northwest motion along with an increase in forward speed is expected through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night, followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move just to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur tonight and on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Olaf could be near hurricane strength by this evening or tonight. The storm is expected to begin weakening on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in Baja California Sur tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area later this afternoon or evening and will spread northward within the warning area tonight. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa later today, spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 34
2021-09-09 04:58:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090258 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 The infrared satellite presentation of Larry this evening is giving the false impression of a well-organized hurricane, with a ring of colder cloud tops (-65 to -70 C) and a warm spot within. However, we are fortunate to have in-situ data provided by an Air Force Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunter mission investigating Larry this evening. Their observations show that Larry's center is actually southwest of the warm spot seen on satellite. In fact, the plane was unable to identify an eye with Larry, and the highest flight-level and SFMR winds were found nearly 80 nautical miles away from the center. Moreover, there remains a large discrepancy between the peak 700-mb flight level winds (108-kt) versus the much lower SFMR peak values (67-kt). This suggests that the 90 percent reduction factor that is typically applied to 700-mb flight level winds in the eyewall may not be appropriate for this hurricane given its very large radius of maximum winds more associated with weaker outer convection. Given these factors, the latest NHC initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt for this advisory. This intensity is also a good compromise between the SAB and TAFB subjective Dvorak estimates. The hurricane's heading is still off to the northwest with the latest motion at 330/14 kt. The track forecast philosophy has not changed much for the last few days, with Larry moving around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the central Atlantic. The hurricane should make its closest approach to the east of Bermuda tomorrow as it gradually turns north-northwest and north. After that, the hurricane will begin to dramatically accelerate to the northeast as Larry is picked up by a deep-layer trough moving offshore of the eastern United States. The latest forecast track is quite similar to the previous one, and takes Larry across the southeast portion of Newfoundland in 48-60 hours. The official forecast remains close to the tightly clustered track guidance consensus. The current structure of Larry appears to be somewhat tilted with height, with the low-level center identified by recon located to the southwest of the apparent center on IR satellite. While the shear as diagnosed by SHIPS appears to be lower, it appears dry air has significantly disrupted Larry's inner core structure, to the point that it likely will be unable to take advantage of the more favorable conditions. The latest NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, owing to the lower initial intensity, but begins to show more pronounced weakening after 24 hours when the hurricane will accelerate poleward of the northern wall of the Gulf Stream. However, Larry is still forecast to be a hurricane as it passes near or over Newfoundland, though likely beginning to undergo extratropical transition. The models continue to maintain Larry as a large formidable cyclone after extratropical transition is complete while it moves into the far north Atlantic east of Greenland. This cyclone will eventually merge with another extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are expected there on Thursday, along with a risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 29.7N 60.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 31.5N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 34.9N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 39.3N 60.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 45.2N 55.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 51.6N 48.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0000Z 57.4N 41.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0000Z 63.8N 35.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2021-09-09 04:54:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 090254 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) X(54) X(54) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 43(43) 44(87) X(87) X(87) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 47(58) X(58) X(58) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) X(24) X(24) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 46(46) 15(61) X(61) X(61) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 13(28) X(28) X(28) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 35(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 18 13(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BERMUDA 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 34
2021-09-09 04:53:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090253 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 ...LARRY STILL A VERY LARGE HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 60.3W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 60.3 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland late Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry should become fully post-tropical by Saturday, after passing by Newfoundland. Larry remains very large, with Hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 34
2021-09-09 04:52:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090252 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 60.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......210NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..460NE 290SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 60.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 59.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.9N 62.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.3N 60.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 160SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 45.2N 55.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 230SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 51.6N 48.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 220SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 57.4N 41.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 280SE 200SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 63.8N 35.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 60.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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