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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-09-10 04:46:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 100246 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-10 04:45:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 283 WTNT23 KNHC 100245 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 75.0W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 75.0W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 76.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.2N 71.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.1N 67.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 75.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 38
2021-09-10 04:44:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 249 WTNT42 KNHC 100244 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 There is not much new to report in the satellite structure with Larry this evening. The hurricane consists of a small core region of cold convective cloud tops near and just north of the center with a much larger concentric band of more moderate convective activity encircling the smaller core. Radar from Bermuda also shows this structure well even as the hurricane pulls away from the island. The most recent subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were unchanged from this afternoon, and the initial intensity will remain at 80 kt for this advisory. Larry is now moving to the north and beginning to accelerate at 360/20 kt. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Larry should soon turn to the northeast and continue accelerating quickly ahead of a large mid-latitude trough. On the current track, Larry should pass near or over southeastern Newfoundland tomorrow night or Saturday morning, becoming post-tropical shortly after it passes by. The post-tropical cyclone Larry should continue to move rapidly to the northeast until it is absorbed by the aforementioned mid-latitude trough after 48 hours. The official track forecast again lies close to the various consensus model predictions, and is just a touch faster than the previous forecast. Larry has another 12 hours or so over warm Gulf Stream waters, and most of the guidance is in agreement that the hurricane should maintain its intensity in the short-term. However, more gradual weakening should begin thereafter once Larry moves over much cooler waters. Unfortunately, there is not much time for Larry to weaken before the hurricane impacts Newfoundland, and it also is possible the rapidly approaching mid-latitude trough will provide some baroclinic forcing that could expand the wind field of the hurricane further. The NHC intensity forecast remain close to the latest HCCA guidance which is quite similar to the previous forecast. After 24 hours, the latest forecast GFS and ECMWF simulated IR brightness temperature suggest that Larry's convection should quickly shear off after passing by Newfoundland, with the hurricane becoming a powerful post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours. Both of these models now also suggest the post-tropical cyclone will quickly be stretched and then absorbed as its captured by an even larger extratropical cyclone produced by the upstream trough after 48 hours. Key Messages: 1. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect. 2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 35.5N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 45.1N 56.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 52.0N 49.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/0000Z 58.1N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2021-09-10 04:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 209 FONT12 KNHC 100244 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 1( 1) 39(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 45(45) 48(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X 5( 5) 70(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 61(61) 24(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X 15(15) 32(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 20(20) 13(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BURGEO NFLD 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SABLE ISLAND 34 2 51(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) SABLE ISLAND 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 38
2021-09-10 04:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 158 WTNT22 KNHC 100244 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO BONAVISTA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 62.3W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..380NE 320SE 260SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 62.3W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 62.3W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 45.1N 56.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 230SE 210SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 52.0N 49.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...220NE 260SE 250SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 58.1N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT...320NE 300SE 200SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 62.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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