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Hurricane Linda Forecast Advisory Number 23

2021-08-15 22:31:30| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021

Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 9A

2021-08-15 19:48:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 151748 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...GRACE BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING GRACE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 66.8W ABOUT 145 MI...90 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * Dominican Republic from the southern Haitian border to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to Samana * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 66.8 West. Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or over west-central Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible until Grace moves over Hispaniola on Monday. Weakening is forecast while the system crosses Hispaniola Monday and Monday night. Some restrengthening could occur if the center moves back over water on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic Monday, and in Haiti on Monday night. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today into Tuesday: Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches across southern terrain areas. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday. By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and will reach portions of Hispaniola tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 24A

2021-08-15 19:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 151741 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...FRED MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 85.2W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from from Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to Navarre A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Alabama to the eastern Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected until landfall, while Fred is expected to weaken quickly after moving inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday... Florida Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Steinhatchee River to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning on Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early Monday near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-08-15 16:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151457 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 Grace remains a disorganized system, with only slight evidence of curved bands of deep convection on satellite imagery. WSR-88D radar data from San Juan show broad rotation of the precipitation echoes, but no definite center. The advisory intensity is kept at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB. We are waiting for additional observations in the system from an upcoming NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission into Grace in a few hours. Grace is in an environment of moderate shear and reasonably moist mid-level environmental air. Therefore some strengthening is expected before the system reaches Hispaniola tomorrow morning. Thereafter, the future intensity of Grace is dependent on how much the circulation interacts with the islands of the Greater Antilles. Weakening is likely due to the expected passage over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, and some restrengthening could occur if the center emerges over water near the Windward Passage. Grace is forecast to maintain minimal tropical storm strength while moving near the northern coast of Cuba. There is, however, considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast in 2-5 days. The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 285/14 kt. A well-defined mid-level high pressure system over the southwestern Atlantic should maintain a general west-northwestward motion for the next several days. The global models are in reasonable agreement on a track near/over the Greater Antilles, including Cuba, during the next several days and over the central Gulf of Mexico in the latter part of the forecast period. The official forecast has been changed little from the previous one and is very close to the latest multi-model consensus, TVCA, solution. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over parts of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over northwestern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti Monday and Monday night. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida, but forecast uncertainty remains higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.2N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.8N 67.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 18.5N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0000Z 19.3N 71.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 20.3N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 18/0000Z 21.3N 76.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR N. COAST OF CUBA 72H 18/1200Z 22.3N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/1200Z 24.6N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 20/1200Z 26.5N 89.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 24

2021-08-15 16:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151452 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the remnants of Fred have re-developed into a tropical cyclone over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows a well-defined low-level center near the northern end of a broadly curved convective band. The Hurricane Hunters reported a central pressure of 1008 mb, along with 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt and SFMR wind estimates near 35 kt about 70 n mi northeast of the center. Based on these developments and data, the system was upgraded back to Tropical Storm Fred a couple of hours ago. The center re-formed northward during the redevelopment process, and the initial position is re-located to the north of the previous advisory position. While the forecast guidance is basically unchanged in calling for a north-northwest motion followed by a turn toward the north near landfall on the northern Gulf coast, the new initial position requires the forecast track to be shifted about 40 n mi to the east of the previous track through the landfall time. Fred is now expected to make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle sometime Monday afternoon or evening. Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly vertical shear until landfall. The intensity guidance forecasts gradual intensification before landfall, and the official intensity forecast follows the guidance in calling for a peak intensity of 45 kt. After landfall, Fred should quickly weaken and dissipate as it moves into the Tennessee Valley. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts across southern Florida, the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From Tuesday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could continue into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 26.1N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 27.4N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 30.5N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 32.5N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0000Z 34.7N 85.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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