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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-14 22:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 142043 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 Grace is a poorly organized tropical storm this afternoon. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters were unable to close off a circulation, at least at their flight level of 5000 feet, but dropsonde observations and reports from some of the islands in the Lesser Antilles suggest that there's at least a broad cyclonic circulation at the surface. The various data also indicate that the center has sped up, or re-formed, and is located farther southwest than previously estimated. Based on the aircraft data and earlier ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt. Both the future track and intensity of Grace have a high level of uncertainty. For the track, the forecast is likely to be complicated by the fact that the system doesn't currently have a tight low-level circulation, and the center could always re-form at any time, especially with convection ongoing farther to the north. In addition, the storm has not yet slowed down, and in fact, the initial motion is estimated to be toward the west (275 degrees) at 23 kt. The guidance envelope has made a notable southward shift due to the adjustment of the initial position, and the models insist that Grace will primarily have a west-northwestward heading for much of the forecast period with the speed gradually decreasing during the next 48 hours or so. The NHC track forecast has been shifted southward accordingly, although any re-formations of the center could cause this track to shift again in future advisory cycles. If Grace slows down as forecast--which is obviously not a sure thing--environmental conditions should be conducive to allow for some strengthening before the system reaches the Greater Antilles. The southward adjustment in the official forecast now takes Grace over the Greater Antilles for a longer period of time, and the official intensity forecast is therefore lowered beyond 48 hours. This is a middle-of-the-road solution, and actually lower than most of the intensity guidance. If the forecast track shifts north or south, the system could strengthen further over water. Alternatively, Grace could go the way of Fred and dissipate before the end of the 5-day period. In the end, the exact track of the center and the intensity of the system will likely not be as important as the heavy rainfall that is forecast to fall across the Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles during the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern parts of the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Leeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida next week, but forecast uncertainty remains higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 16.5N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.1N 66.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 18.3N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR DOMINICAN REP. 60H 17/0600Z 19.2N 72.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR HAITI 72H 17/1800Z 20.2N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER CUBA 96H 18/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER CUBA 120H 19/1800Z 24.8N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-08-14 22:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 142043 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) X(18) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20(28) 1(29) X(29) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONCE PR 34 X 11(11) 16(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 1(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VIEQUES PR 34 X 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SABA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 54 X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) AVES 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-14 22:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 142042 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO TO CABO ENGANO * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO CABO ENGANO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 60.7W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 60.7W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 59.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 63.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.1N 66.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.7N 68.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.3N 70.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 72.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.2N 75.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 24.8N 84.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 60.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Remnants of Fred Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-08-14 22:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 040 WTNT41 KNHC 142039 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that a broad and elongated circulation has formed in association with the remnants of Fred, and that the convection has become more concentrated at the east end of the elongated center. However, neither the circulation nor the convection are organized enough to justify calling the system a tropical cyclone at this time. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to survey the remnants of Fred this evening to see how far the re-development has progressed. The initial motion is a still very uncertain 300/11. The system is expected to move northwestward around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with a turn toward the north expected as the system nears and moves inland along the northern Gulf coast in 48-60 h. The forecast guidance remains in good agreement on this general scenario and the new NHC forecast track is close the the consensus models. However, some adjustments to the track forecast could occur depending on where the center of Fred re-forms. Therefore, users should not concentrate on the details of the forecast track, which could change quite a bit during the next day or so. The global models are now in better agreement that the upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that has been hindering the development of Fred will move northward and weaken during the next 24 h. They also indicate that Fred is likely to re-form a well-defined closed circulation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning. Thus, the intensity forecast now calls for Fred to regain tropical cyclone status in about 12 h, followed by gradual strengthening until landfall in a less than ideal upper-level wind environment. After landfall, the system should weaken and dissipate between 96-120 h. The new NHC intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance. Although no coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect, the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly advisories on the remnants of Fred in anticipation of re-development. Watches could be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight, and warnings may be required on Sunday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico tonight or on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. Watches may be required for a portion of this area tonight, and warnings may be required on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 24.0N 84.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...DISTURBANCE 12H 15/0600Z 25.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 15/1800Z 26.6N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 28.0N 87.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 29.4N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 30.9N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/1800Z 32.4N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1800Z 36.0N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Remnants of Fred Forecast Advisory Number 21
2021-08-14 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 142037 TCMAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 84.6W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 84.6W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 84.1W...DISTURBANCE FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.0N 85.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.6N 87.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 28.0N 87.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.4N 88.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.9N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.4N 88.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 36.0N 87.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 84.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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