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Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-08-13 22:52:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 132052 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) 1(21) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 1(31) X(31) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 10(38) X(38) X(38) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 5(37) X(37) X(37) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 24(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 27(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) SABA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 14(14) 24(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 18(18) 19(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 27(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 30(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-13 22:51:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 615 WTNT22 KNHC 132051 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. THE GOVERNMENT OF SINT MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SINT MAARTEN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 51.8W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 51.8W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 50.8W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.9N 54.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.4N 58.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.0N 61.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.7N 65.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.4N 67.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 70.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.9N 74.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.6N 79.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 51.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Linda Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-13 22:46:48| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021
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Hurricane Linda Public Advisory Number 15
2021-08-13 22:46:21| Tropical Depression LIDIA
...LINDA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... Location: 17.5°N 112.9°W Max sustained: 115 mph Moving: WNW at 14 mph Min pressure: 965 mb Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021
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Hurricane Linda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-08-13 22:46:21| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021
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