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Tropical Depression Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-06-20 04:40:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200239 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Dolores Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Tropical Depression Dolores continues to rapidly weaken. It is getting very difficult to locate a low-level center at this time, if one still exists over the mountainous terrain. Given the length of time already spent over this terrain, the estimated initial intensity is being lowered to 25 kt for this advisory. Dolores is moving north at 18 kt between a ridge to its east and a mid-level low to its west. This motion is expected to continue through tonight, keeping Dolores well inland over western Mexico. This track over the rugged terrain should cause Dolores to finally dissipate late tonight or on Sunday morning. Although Dolores may dissipate soon, the abundant moisture associated with the system is expected to continue to produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico for the remainder of the weekend. Key Messages: 1. Wind gusts to near tropical storm force will likely continue over coastal sections of west-central Mexico to the south of Puerto Vallarta through early tonight. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through Sunday, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 22.3N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-06-20 04:40:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200239 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Although the center is well inland, Claudette has become better organized during the past several hours, with a large area of convection forming close to the center in the northern quadrant. In addition to this convection, a large area of rain bands is present over the eastern semicircle from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico northward into southeastern Tennessee Surface observation indicate that the maximum winds have decreased a little more and are now 25 kt, with these winds mainly over the Gulf of Mexico to the south of the center. Surface observations also indicate that the central pressure is 1005-1006 mb. The initial motion is still northeastward, but is a little slower than before, 050/12 kt. A turn to the east-northeast is expected during the next 6-12 h as Claudette moves in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the system across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next 36 h or so and then over the western Atlantic and toward Atlantic Canada with a significant increase in forward speed between 36- 72 h. The track forecast guidance remains tightly clustered and has changed little since the last advisory. So, the new forecast track is basically an update of the previous forecast, and it calls for the system to be near the coast of North Carolina at about the 36 h point. The intensity guidance continues to show a sizable amount of spread. On one side, the GFS has an ill-defined system reaching the Carolina coast in 36 h, with only minimal subsequent intensification after Claudette moves into the Atlantic. On the other side, the UKMET shows the central pressure falling below 1000 mb before the system reaches the Atlantic and winds exceeding 50 kt once the system is over water. The ECMWF and Canadian models lie between these extremes. The model forecasts do not show any strong baroclinic forcing that would lead to the level of intensification shown by the UKMET. On the other hand, the short-term trends in the cyclone's organization currently favor the stronger model forecasts. Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast is not changed much from the previous forecast, except for moving the time of dissipation up by 24 h as Claudette gets absorbed into a large extratropical low over eastern Canada. If the current trends continue, or later GFS runs forecast a stronger system, the intensity forecast could be adjusted upward in later advisories. It should be noted that even the weaker GFS solution brings 30-35 kt winds to the North Carolina coast near the 36 h point, and a tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of the current watch area on the next advisory. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, northern Alabama, and Georgia through tonight, and into the Carolinas on Sunday. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of this area early Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 32.6N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/1200Z 33.3N 84.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0000Z 34.2N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1200Z 35.4N 76.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0000Z 37.7N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 22/1200Z 40.8N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 44.5N 60.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Claudette Public Advisory Number 10
2021-06-20 04:39:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200239 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Claudette Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...CENTER OF CLAUDETTE MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 87.0W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeast U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm warnings will likely be required for a portion of the watch area Sunday morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Claudette was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 87.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast is expected tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should cross portions of the southeast U.S. through Sunday night, and move over the coasts of the Carolinas into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are mainly occurring over the Gulf of Mexico well to the south of the center. Little change in strength is expected tonight and Sunday. However, the cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm again when it moves across the Carolinas Sunday night or early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches across northern Alabama, northern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and South and North Carolina. Flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts, as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are possible across these areas. Storm total rainfall is expected to be 5 to 10 inches with isolated 15 inch totals in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout, NC to NC/VA Border...1-3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight across southeast Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia, and across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas on Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Claudette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-06-20 04:39:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 200239 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) FLORENCE SC 34 X 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-06-20 04:38:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 200238 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 87.0W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 87.0W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 87.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.3N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.2N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.4N 76.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.7N 71.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.8N 66.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 44.5N 60.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 120SE 80SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 87.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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