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Hurricane Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-10-28 09:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 280854 PWSAT3 HURRICANE ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0900 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTA GA 34 X 6( 6) 36(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ATLANTA GA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 18(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 2 42(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 18(18) 13(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 40(40) 6(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 58(58) 6(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WHITING FLD FL 34 3 63(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) WHITING FLD FL 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 3 66(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 34 6 37(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) MOBILE AL 34 3 91(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) MOBILE AL 50 X 57(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) MOBILE AL 64 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 4 93(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GULFPORT MS 50 X 63(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) GULFPORT MS 64 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) STENNIS MS 34 6 88(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) STENNIS MS 50 X 56(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) STENNIS MS 64 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BURAS LA 34 37 62(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 50 1 83(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) BURAS LA 64 X 29(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GFMX 280N 890W 34 73 15(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) GFMX 280N 890W 50 6 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 890W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSON MS 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 14 70(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 1 37(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 94 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GFMX 280N 910W 64 68 12(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) BATON ROUGE LA 34 5 16(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MORGAN CITY LA 34 27 21(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) MORGAN CITY LA 50 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 6 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 930W 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 930W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JASPER TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 5 67(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KEESLER AB 34 10 88(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) KEESLER AB 50 X 75(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) KEESLER AB 64 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-10-28 09:54:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280854 TCMAT3 HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0900 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 91.8W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 91.8W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.8N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 37.5N 79.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 40.5N 67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 210SE 210SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 91.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Zeta Public Advisory Number 14A
2020-10-28 06:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 280553 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 ...ZETA RE-STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS, STARTING IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 91.5W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 91.5 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected today. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico overnight. Zeta is forecast to make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this afternoon, move close to the Mississippi coast this evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely overnight and this morning, and Zeta is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United States on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...5-8 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area this afternoon. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast this morning through today, eventually affecting the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of heavy rains near Zeta will track from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic late today through late Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. Zeta may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain across portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through the early morning hours. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight over southeastern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Latto
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-10-28 03:55:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280255 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Satellite images show that Zeta is becoming better organized tonight with a ragged eye feature now present, plenty of deep convection and a more symmetric appearance. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found increasing winds on this flight, recently recording peak flight-level winds of 65 kt and a minimum pressure of around 990 mb. The initial wind speed is raised to 60 kt on the basis of the wind data. The improving cloud pattern of Zeta is usually one that favors intensification in the short term. In addition, microwave data from a couple hours ago indicated that a 37 GHz low-level ring was present, which also can be a harbinger of strengthening, and sometimes that strengthening is on the rapid side. Since the storm remains over warm water with fairly light shear, the NHC forecast still anticipates Zeta regaining hurricane intensity within the next 6 hours and making a second landfall as a hurricane. The new NHC forecast is a little higher than the previous one, remaining on the high side of the guidance. After landfall, Zeta is likely to become an extratropical cyclone while it approaches the eastern United States in a couple of days, and become absorbed by the same frontal system. Zeta is moving northwestward a little faster tonight (325/13 kt). The storm is expected to turn northward and move along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone centered east of Florida through Wednesday morning. A deep cold low (responsible for the southern Plains ice storm) approaching from the west will cause Zeta to sharply accelerate north-northeastward and move inland along the southeastern Louisiana coast Wednesday afternoon. The cyclone should continue to accelerate ahead of the trough and move over the southeastern and eastern U.S. through Thursday. Similar to the last forecast, the official track forecast was moved slightly westward during the first 24 hours, not too dissimilar from a consensus of the latest GFS, UKMET and ECMWF forecasts. Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night. KEY MESSAGES: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundation occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon within portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City, Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to Zeta's fast forward speed. 3. Localized heavy rainfall from Zeta will continue tonight in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba where additional flash flooding is possible in urban areas. Between tonight and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 23.8N 91.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 26.0N 91.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 30.2N 89.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1200Z 35.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/0000Z 39.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-10-28 03:54:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 280254 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NWS EARLE NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PHILADELPHIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 40(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALTIMORE MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 42(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 40(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 39(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WASHINGTON DC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 49(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 49(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 48(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 47(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 38(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 48(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 40(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 39(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 38(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ATLANTA GA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ST MARKS FL 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 X 11(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 16(16) 14(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 23(23) 29(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 4( 4) 32(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 5( 5) 29(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 10(10) 55(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 32(32) 37(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) WHITING FLD FL 50 X 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 40(40) 31(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 42(43) 5(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X 72(72) 16(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) MOBILE AL 50 X 23(23) 36(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) MOBILE AL 64 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GULFPORT MS 34 1 87(88) 4(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) GULFPORT MS 50 X 58(58) 15(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) GULFPORT MS 64 X 11(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) STENNIS MS 34 2 89(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) STENNIS MS 50 X 67(67) 5(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) STENNIS MS 64 X 13(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BURAS LA 34 4 92(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) BURAS LA 50 X 80(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) BURAS LA 64 X 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 890W 34 21 65(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) GFMX 280N 890W 50 1 27(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 86(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 63(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 57 42(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 4 92(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 41(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) BATON ROUGE LA 34 2 42(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 61(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 30(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 2 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 23(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 23 6(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GFMX 280N 930W 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMERON LA 34 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JASPER TX 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X 51(51) 22(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEESLER AB 34 1 87(88) 5(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) KEESLER AB 50 X 59(59) 14(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) KEESLER AB 64 X 15(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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