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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-10-27 21:40:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 272040 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 90.3W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 90.3W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 90.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.5N 91.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.4N 87.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 37.2N 81.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 40.0N 70.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 200SE 200SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 90.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 12A
2020-10-27 18:47:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 271747 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 100 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 ...ZETA MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 90.1W ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for the Yucatan Peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 90.1 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. Zeta should turn toward the north tonight, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico today and over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, make landfall within the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move inland across the southeastern United States early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen while it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico, and become a hurricane again later today. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...5-8 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion Bay...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Water levels along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will gradually subside today as Zeta moves away from the area. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late Wednesday. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through today across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across western Cuba through Tuesday. An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast tonight, with the core of heavy rains spreading north into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday, near and in advance of Zeta. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-10-27 15:51:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 811 WTNT43 KNHC 271451 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 High-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite images indicate that the center of Zeta has moved just offshore of the northern coast of Yucatan. Based on Air Force and NOAA aircraft observations a little while ago, after the cyclone's interaction with the Yucatan, the maximum winds had decreased to near 55 kt. The cloud pattern of the storm is well organized, with a small Central Dense Overcast and numerous banding features. Given this, Zeta is likely to restrengthen as it moves over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico and in a low-shear environment today through tomorrow morning. When the cyclone nears the northern Gulf Coast in 30-36 hours, decreasing oceanic heat content and possibly stronger shear will likely halt the intensification process. The official intensity forecast shows slight weakening near landfall, but Zeta is likely to be at or near hurricane strength when it crosses the coastline. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the model consensus and a blend of the LGEM and Decay-SHIPS guidance. The storm continues its generally northwestward motion, or at around 305/12 kt. Zeta will move northwestward to northward around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high pressure area centered east of Florida for the next 24 hours or so. Then, a strong 500-mb shortwave trough approaching from the west should cause Zeta to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward by late Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring Zeta across the north-central Gulf coast late Wednesday and over the southeastern United States on Thursday. Aside from some speed differences, the track models are in good agreement and have shown good run-to-run consistency. The official track forecast is about the same as the previous one and close to the model consensus. Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night. KEY MESSAGES: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundation occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Wednesday within portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City, Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to Zetas fast forward speed. 3. Between tonight and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. 4. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few hours. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba today, which will lead to flash flooding in urban areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 21.6N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 25.7N 91.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 89.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 34.2N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-10-27 15:45:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 271445 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO MEXICO * COZUMEL * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 89.5W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 89.5W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 89.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.7N 91.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.3N 89.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.2N 85.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 220SE 300SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 89.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 11A
2020-10-27 12:42:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 271142 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 700 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 ...ZETA NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 89.0W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico * Cozumel * Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located over the northern Yucatan Peninsula near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 89.0 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. Zeta should turn toward the north tonight, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and make landfall within the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and become a hurricane again later today. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Mexico within areas of onshore winds. Along the northern Gulf coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion Bay...2-4 ft Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across western Cuba through Tuesday. An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast tonight, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will push northeast from eastern Louisiana, across southern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning area in Mexico this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late Wednesday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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