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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-29 22:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 292032 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 109.5W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 109.5W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.9N 111.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.6N 114.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.9N 117.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.3N 120.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N 124.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 19.6N 128.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 21.4N 131.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 109.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2020-09-29 16:41:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 861 WTPZ33 KNHC 291441 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 108.5W ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 108.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-29 16:41:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 860 WTPZ23 KNHC 291441 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 108.5W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 108.5W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.8N 110.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.4N 113.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.6N 116.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 119.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.4N 121.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.4N 124.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 18.9N 127.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 21.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 108.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-29 10:43:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290843 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A burst of deep convection that developed near the center of the area of low pressure well southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the evening has persisted overnight. Microwave imagery and a 0444 UTC ASCAT-C overpass indicated that the center of the low re-formed within the area of deep convection and with the overall increase in the organization of the system, advisories are being initiated on the eighteen tropical depression of the 2020 eastern Pacific hurricane season. The scatterometer data revealed peak winds of around 30 kt, and that is used as the advisory intensity. The depression is located over warm water and within an area of light to moderate northeasterly shear, and these conditions are expected to allow for steady strengthening over the next few days. Although the SHIPS model guidance only shows a peak intensity of 65-70 kt in 72-84 hours, the SHIPS rapid intensification index indicates a 50 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in intensity over the next 72 hours. In addition, the global models significantly deepen the system over the next few days. On the basis of the SHIP RI information and the global models, the NHC intensity forecast is above the IVCN intensity consensus close to the more aggressive HWRF and HCCA models. Late in the period, decreasing SSTs and increasing vertical wind shear should result in weakening. Given the recent re-formation of the center, the initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 275/9 kt. A deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern United States is expected to steer the cyclone westward to west-northwestward during the next several days. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone will be approaching the southwestern portion of the ridge allowing it to turn northwesterly. Although there some model differences in the predicted forward speed of the depression, the models are in good agreement on the overall track forecast scenario. To account for these forward speed differences, the NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 13.2N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 13.5N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 14.2N 111.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 14.6N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 14.8N 117.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 15.3N 119.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 16.2N 122.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 18.3N 126.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 20.5N 129.2W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-29 10:42:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 290842 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 22(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 50(51) 25(76) X(76) 1(77) X(77) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 12(12) 22(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 67(80) X(80) X(80) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 1(47) X(47) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 24(40) 1(41) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 5(35) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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