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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Public Advisory Number 1
2020-10-02 16:55:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021455 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN... ...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 84.7W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche, and a Tropical Storm Watch south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya and west of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya * West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Five was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 84.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Saturday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas, with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by early Saturday, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-10-02 16:55:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 021455 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 2(13) COZUMEL MX 34 1 15(16) 18(34) 4(38) 3(41) X(41) 1(42) COZUMEL MX 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-10-02 16:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 021455 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA AND WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA * WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.7W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.7W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 84.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.9N 85.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.8N 86.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.6N 87.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.4N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N 87.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 88.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N 90.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 92.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 84.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-10-02 16:47:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021447 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Marie's structure has not changed significantly since the previous advisory. A recent AMSR microwave image showed that the hurricane continues to have a closed eyewall that is a little thin on the southeast side, but there are no clear indications that an eyewall replacement is occuring. Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB diverged from 6 hours ago, with TAFB's going up to T6.5 and SAB's falling to T5.5. In addition, final-T numbers from the objective ADT scheme have decreased since six hours ago. Because of the estimate discrepancies, the initial intensity is being held at 115 kt. Marie is moving west-northwestward (290 degrees) at 12 kt, just a little to the left of and slower than the previous motion estimate. A large mid-tropospheric high centered over the southwestern United States continues to be the main driver of Marie's motion, but the hurricane should begin to reach a break in the ridge and turn toward the northwest in the next 24 hours. After that time, a general motion toward the northwest or west-northwest should continue through the end of the forecast period. The spread in the guidance does increase a bit by days 4 and 5, which appears to be related to the depth of the cyclone and how it interacts with the steering flow. Overall, though, the guidance envelope has not shifted, and the NHC forecast was only slowed down a bit to be more in line with the latest TVCE multi-model consensus and HCCA aid. Marie should remain in a low-shear environment and over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for the next 24 hours, during which time some additional strengthening is possible. Any intensification could be thwarted by an eyewall replacement, but as stated above, that does not appear to be occuring at this time. Increasing deep-layer southwesterly shear and cooler waters should induce a definitive weakening trend after 24 hours, with Marie falling below hurricane strength by day 3, and then becoming a tropical depression by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward a bit during the weakening phase and lies near or just above the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 16.5N 124.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 17.2N 125.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 18.3N 127.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.3N 128.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 20.0N 129.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 20.6N 130.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 21.0N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 23.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg/Reinhart
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Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 14
2020-10-02 16:47:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 021447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE MARIE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 124.3W ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 124.3 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible later today or tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg/Reinhart
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