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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 21
2015-09-04 04:33:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 040233 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015 Deep convection has once again decreased markedly due to strong westerly shear and marginal SSTs. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a large area of 30-35 kt winds seen in a recent ASCAT-B pass. While Fred is forecast to move over gradually warmer waters, the strong shear will continue for the next couple of days and Fred is forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 hours. If the remnant low survives, there is a possibility of regeneration in about 4 days when Fred will be moving into a more favorable environment, but this is uncertain. The initial motion estimate is 285/10, as Fred has been moving a little to the left of the previous forecast track. While the overall track forecast reasoning has not changed, there is a fair amount of spread in the guidance as to how sharply Fred will recurve around the subtropical ridge and into the mid-latitude westerlies. Overall, the guidance and the NHC forecast have shifted a little to the left this cycle through 48 hours to account for the initial position and motion. After that time, the NHC track is largely an update of the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus, between the faster ECMWF and UKMET and the slower GFS, GEFS mean, and HWRF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 22.0N 36.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 22.2N 37.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 22.5N 39.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z 22.9N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 23.6N 42.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 26.3N 42.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z 29.5N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H 09/0000Z 32.0N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION $$ Forecaster Brennan
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fred
Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-04 04:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 3 the center of FRED was located near 22.0, -36.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 21
2015-09-04 04:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 040232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015 ...FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 36.5W ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 36.5 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed is forecast by late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Fred is expected to become a remnant low on Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 21
2015-09-04 04:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 040231 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 36.5W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 36.5W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 36.0W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.2N 37.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.5N 39.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.9N 41.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.6N 42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.3N 42.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 29.5N 40.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 32.0N 37.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 36.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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fred
Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2015-09-04 04:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 040231 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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