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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 15
2015-09-02 16:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 021436 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 30.9W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 30.9W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 30.5W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.2N 32.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.9N 33.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.5N 35.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.9N 36.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.7N 39.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 24.2N 41.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 26.5N 42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 30.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm FRED Graphics
2015-09-02 10:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2015 08:38:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2015 08:50:47 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-02 10:35:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 2 the center of FRED was located near 19.5, -30.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 14
2015-09-02 10:35:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 020835 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 30.1W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 15SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 30.1W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 29.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.0N 31.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.7N 32.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.2N 34.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.6N 35.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.3N 39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.5N 41.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 25.6N 43.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 30.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-09-02 04:41:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020241 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 The deep convection near the center of Fred has decreased during the past few hours, with the low-level center now partially exposed to the west of the convection. An ASCAT-B overpass near 0000 UTC probed the western side of the circulation and showed 40-kt winds near the center. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 45 kt. The initial motion estimate is now 295/11. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. Fred should continue moving west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic during the next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter, the western portion of the ridge is expected to weaken when a trough deepens over the central Atlantic. This evolution should steer Fred or its remnants generally northwestward. There has been little change in the forecast guidance since the last advisory. Based on this, the new forecast track is an update of the previous track through 72 hours and lies just north of the consensus models. After 72 hours, the track has been adjusted westward, but still lies to the east of the center of the guidance envelope as a compromise between the current guidance and the previous forecast. The intensity forecast philosophy remains unchanged. Fred is over sea surface temperatures of about 26 deg C and is about to encounter strong westerly vertical wind shear. In addition, the cyclone is entraining a drier and more stable air mass. This combination should cause weakening over the next several days. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it calls for Fred to weaken to a depression in 30 to 36 hours and degenerate into a remnant low after 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 19.4N 29.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 19.8N 30.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 20.4N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 21.0N 33.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 21.4N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 22.0N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 23.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z 25.0N 43.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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