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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-06-03 04:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 030238 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.3W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.3W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 92.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.7N 92.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.3N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.8N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.6N 91.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.2N 91.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 25.0N 91.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 29.0N 91.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 92.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-03 01:58:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 23:58:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 21:25:00 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-03 01:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES... As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 the center of Cristobal was located near 19.1, -92.3 with movement S at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-06-03 01:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 022357 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 700 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 92.3W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.3 West. Cristobal is meandering generally southward near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn toward the southeast and east is expected tonight and Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and north on Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast on Wednesday and move inland over eastern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane and surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional increase in strength is possible until the center crosses the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back over water Thursday night and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km) from the center. An automated weather station on a Mexican offshore platform recently measured a sustained wind of 48 mph with a gust to 62 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche. Cristobal is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-02 22:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 20:41:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 20:41:28 GMT
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