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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-10-11 16:57:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 111457 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA SOUTHWARD TO ESCUINAPA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA NORTHWARD TO ALTATA...AND ALSO FROM ESCUINAPA SOUTHWARD TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING ALL THE ISLA MARIAS ARCHIPELAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARILLES SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO SAN BLAS * ISLA MARIAS * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 108.1W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 108.1W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.9W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.8N 108.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.3N 109.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.1N 108.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.3N 107.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.7N 104.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.1N 100.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 108.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 11/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Pamela Graphics
2021-10-10 22:41:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Oct 2021 20:41:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Oct 2021 20:41:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-10-10 22:39:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 211 FOPZ11 KNHC 102039 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 2100 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 56(63) 2(65) X(65) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 59(65) 1(66) X(66) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) X(27) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 41(66) X(66) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) X(32) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 28(34) 2(36) X(36) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 13(61) X(61) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 13(27) X(27) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 57(72) 17(89) 1(90) X(90) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 24(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 18(35) X(35) X(35) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 34(61) 4(65) X(65) X(65) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Pamela (EP1/EP162021)
2021-10-10 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PAMELA... ...FORECAST TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE MEXICO COAST BY MIDWEEK AS A HURRICANE... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 the center of Pamela was located near 15.5, -105.9 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 3
2021-10-10 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 102038 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PAMELA... ...FORECAST TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE MEXICO COAST BY MIDWEEK AS A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 105.9W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southern portions of Baja California del Sur and in west-central mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Pamela. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Pamela is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn to the northwest and then north is forecast to occur late Monday into Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next few days and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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