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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-10-01 10:42:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010842 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 Infrared and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Victor has continued to become a little better organized, with a 0342Z AMSR2 overpass showing that a 75-percent-closed mid-level eye feature had formed. However, both data sources also revealed that a pronounced dry slot has formed in the southeastern quadrant. Upper-level outflow remains well established in all quadrants except to the south where it is somewhat restricted. Despite the slightly improved satellite signatures, subjective and objective intensity classifications have not changed since the previous advisory, so the intensity remains at 50 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 305/13 kt. Victor has made a slight jog toward the northwest, but this is likely a temporary motion due to redevelopment of the center farther into the convective cloud shield. The cyclone should resume a west-northwestward motion later today and maintain that motion for another day or so as Victor moves along the southwestern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge situated over the east-central Atlantic. The latest model runs continue to show a broad mid- to upper-level low developing over the central Atlantic to the west of Victor in the 24-72-h forecast period, which will act to erode the western portion of the ridge and create a deep-layer southerly flow pattern across the cyclone. As a result, Victor is forecast to turn northwestward by the weekend and then move northward by early next week. Owing to a more robust mid-/upper-level low forecast to develop than previously expected, the latest NHC track guidance has made a significant westward shift by at least 100 nmi at 72 h and nearly 200 nmi on days 4 and 5. This westward shift is due to Victor now forecast to weaken faster and become more vertically shallow, with the dominant steering flow shifting to low-level easterlies. The new NHC track forecast has also been shifted westward, but not as far west as the tightly packed consensus models, all of which lie well to the east of the westernmost GFS solution. Victor is expected to remain in a somewhat favorable environment for the next 18 h or so, which should allow for at least some slight strengthening to occur. Thereafter, however, southwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to increase to 20-25 kt in 24 hours and 30-35 kt by 72 h. These hostile shear conditions, in conjunction with a drier air mass, should result in gradual weakening during the 24-120-h period, with Victor becoming a remnant low on day 5. The new official intensity forecast is a little below the previous advisory, but it is above the consensus intensity models ICON, HCCA, and FSSE, due to the recent development of the aforementioned primitive eye feature. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 11.7N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 12.4N 33.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 13.4N 35.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 14.9N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 16.7N 38.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 19.0N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 21.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 24.0N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 28.0N 45.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-01 10:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 1 the center of Victor was located near 11.7, -32.3 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 8
2021-10-01 10:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010841 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...VICTOR MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 32.3W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 32.3 West. Victor is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected today, followed by a northwestward motion over the eastern tropical Atlantic over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening will be possible through tonight, followed by a slow weakening trend over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-10-01 10:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010841 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 32.3W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 90SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 45SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 32.3W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 31.7W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.4N 33.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.4N 35.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.9N 36.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.7N 38.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.0N 40.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 28.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 32.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-10-01 10:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 010841 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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