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Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-17 01:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM AST Mon Aug 16 the center of Henri was located near 30.9, -63.0 with movement SSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 4A
2021-08-17 01:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 162347 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 800 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 ...HENRI MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 63.0W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 205 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 63.0 West. Henri is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow clockwise turn toward the southwest and then toward the west is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Henri is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Fred Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2021-08-16 23:18:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 21:18:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Henri Graphics
2021-08-16 22:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 20:53:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 21:36:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 29
2021-08-16 22:46:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 162046 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Radar data indicate that the center of Fred made landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle a little while ago, and it is currently moving farther inland. Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the storm reached a peak intensity of 55 kt just before landfall. Assuming some weakening since crossing the coast, the current intensity estimate is 50 kt. Fairly rapid weakening will occur while the center moves over land, and the cyclone will probably be reduced to tropical depression status by tomorrow morning. The official intensity forecast for the next day or so is close to the latest Decay-SHIPS model guidance. Radar fixes indicate that the motion is north-northeastward, or 020/8 kt. During the next day or two Fred should move, with increasing forward speed, between a mid-level subtropical high pressure area over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak trough over the east-central United states. The official track forecast is quite close to the latest NOAA corrected consensus model prediction, HCCA. Although it is weakening, Fred is likely to bring flooding rains over portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland, heavy rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is ongoing along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region. 3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coastline within the warning area over the next few hours and will continue to spread farther inland later today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, and southeastern Alabama. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 29.9N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/0600Z 31.5N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1800Z 34.0N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0600Z 37.0N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/1800Z 39.5N 80.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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