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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 26A

2021-08-16 07:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160551 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 86.0W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and satellites near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 86.0 West. Fred is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (10 km/h), and this motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through this morning, followed by a turn toward the north this afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico today, and make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early evening. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and a nearby ship indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Today... Keys and southern Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected.. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this morning over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late morning and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Fred Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2021-08-16 04:47:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 02:47:02 GMT

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Tropical Storm Fred Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2021-08-16 04:47:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 02:47:02 GMT

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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 26

2021-08-16 04:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160244 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Fred remains a sheared tropical cyclone however the overall organization of the system has improved somewhat since this afternoon. The low-level center is embedded near the western edge of the primary convective mass, and there has been an overall increase in deep convection near and to the east of the center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Fred this evening has reported that the pressure has fallen to 999 mb and it has found winds to support an initial intensity of 45 kt. The plane found a very small area of slightly stronger flight-level and SFMR winds well east of the center, but those winds appear to have been associated with a strong convective cell and are likely not representative of the system's overall intensity. Fred is moving north-northwestward or 330/08 kt, and this motion should continue overnight. The dynamical model guidance indicates that the tropical cyclone will turn northward on Monday as it approaches the coast of the Florida panhandle. A north- northeastward motion around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should commence by the time the system makes landfall, and this general heading should continue until the system dissipates in a couple of days. The dynamical models envelope did not change much and the latest consensus aids were essentially along the previous NHC track. As a result, little alteration was made to the previous official track forecast. The cyclone is located within an area of moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear. However, most of the intensity guidance continues to suggest that Fred will strengthen a little over the next 12-18 hours. As the system nears the northern Gulf coast, the SHIPS guidance forecasts some increase in shear and the intensity models reflect this by showing a leveling off of Fred's intensity at that time. After landfall, Fred should weaken quickly and dissipate over the Tennessee Valley in a little more than 48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement within the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast, including portions of southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland toward the Tennessee Valley, heavy rainfall and flooding may impact the southern and central Appalachians, and the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 27.3N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 28.6N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 30.2N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 32.3N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 34.4N 84.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)

2021-08-16 04:44:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEGINNING MONDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 the center of Fred was located near 27.3, -85.9 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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