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Tag: tropical storm

Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2021-07-05 22:53:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 05 Jul 2021 20:53:21 GMT

Tags: map storm tropical surge

Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics

2021-07-05 22:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Jul 2021 20:48:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Jul 2021 20:48:40 GMT

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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 22

2021-07-05 22:47:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 339 WTNT45 KNHC 052047 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 Satellite and radar imagery along with surface synoptic observations indicate that the tropical cyclone moved inland over west-central Cuba around 1800 UTC, accompanied by very heavy rains. Assuming that some weakening has occurred due to the influence of land, the advisory intensity is set to 45 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Elsa this evening after the center moves into the Florida Straits and will provide a better assessment of the system's intensity. The storm appears to be continuing on its northwestward track and the initial motion estimate is 315/12 kt. There are no changes to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Elsa should move between the western portion of a mid-level subtropical ridge extending westward from the Atlantic and a broad low pressure area near the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast for the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, the system is likely to accelerate northeastward and move from the eastern United States to near Atlantic Canada. The NHC track forecast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is practically identical to the one from the previous advisory, and a little to the left of the previous one over the eastern United States and the Atlantic. This is in good agreement with the now tightly-clustered track model guidance. Some restrengthening of the cyclone is likely after it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, but vertical shear associated with a broad upper-level trough over the Gulf is likely to limit intensification. The official intensity forecast is slightly above the latest model consensus, IVCN. Around 96 hours, the global models suggest that the cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so the forecast shows extratropical transition at that time. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba through tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and southeast Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid- to late-week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida west coast through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 81.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 24.1N 82.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 26.1N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 28.2N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 30.6N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 08/0600Z 32.8N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/1800Z 35.5N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1800Z 41.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z 49.0N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

2021-07-05 22:47:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 617 FONT15 KNHC 052047 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 16(21) X(21) X(21) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) X(21) X(21) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 7(30) X(30) X(30) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 7(29) X(29) X(29) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 28(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 17(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) PATRICK AFB 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) W PALM BEACH 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 9 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) KEY WEST FL 34 54 8(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) KEY WEST FL 50 6 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NAPLES FL 34 2 34(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) NAPLES FL 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X 15(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) VENICE FL 34 1 41(42) 25(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) VENICE FL 50 X 5( 5) 16(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 1 13(14) 47(61) 3(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) TAMPA FL 50 X 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 4( 4) 45(49) 13(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 12(12) 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 18(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 4(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) HAVANA 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)

2021-07-05 22:46:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ELSA MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA WITH HEAVY RAINS... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 the center of Elsa was located near 22.7, -81.9 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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