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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 23
2021-07-06 04:50:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060250 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 Radar data from Cuba and Key West, Florida, along with surface observations, indicate that the center of Elsa is back over water, having emerged off the northern coast of of Cuba around 0200 UTC. Doppler velocity data from the NOAA WSR-88D at Key West indicate values of around 55 t at 10,000 ft, which supports equivalent surface winds of 49 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft flying just offshore the north coast of Cuba over deep water measured reliable SFMR surface winds of at least 50 kt. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 50 kt. The initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Just like over the past three days, no significant changes have been made to the previous track forecast or synoptic reasoning. Elsa is now moving north-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge whose axis extends westward across the Atlantic to central Florida. The cyclone should gradually move around the ridge over the next 36 hours, turning northward on Tuesday and then north-northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. By late Wednesday, Elsa should accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough and frontal system, moving across the eastern United States to near Atlantic Canada. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, but was nudged slightly eastward due to the more eastward initial position, and lies a tad east of of the various tightly clustered track consensus models. Some additional strengthening is expected over the next 36 hours, with some of the SHIPS and global models showing Elsa possibly reaching 60 kt just before landfall along the northwestern Florida peninsula. This would typically require a Hurricane Watch for a small portion of northwest Florida. However, given that Elsa has been hugging a very tight mid-level moisture gradient -- a condition that is expected to continue until landfall occurs in about 36 hours -- the new official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and holds the peak intensity at 55 kt due to expected intermittent dry-air intrusions. Subsequent NHC forecasts can assess the new reconnaissance and model data that will be coming in later tonight, and determine if an increase in the intensity forecast and the issuance of a hurricane watch or warning is required. By 96 hours, the global models suggest that the cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so the new intensity forecast continues to shows extratropical transition at that time. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and southeast Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida west coast through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 23.5N 82.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 24.9N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 26.9N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 29.2N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 31.6N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 08/1200Z 34.0N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/0000Z 36.9N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/0000Z 43.3N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0000Z 50.5N 52.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-06 04:50:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA BACK OVER WATER BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 the center of Elsa was located near 23.5, -82.3 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 23
2021-07-06 04:50:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 060250 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 ...ELSA BACK OVER WATER BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 82.3W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Villa Clara. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located by radars from Key West, Florida, and Havana, Cuba, near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 82.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight and Tuesday morning, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday night. A north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move across the Florida Straits tonight and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida by late Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Key West and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of central and western Cuba for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys beginning tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into the Florida Big Bend region within the Tropical Storm Warning area Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late Tuesday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands tonight, additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with storm total rainfall to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida into southeast Georgia and the Low Country of South Carolina...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba tonight. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Latto
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2021-07-06 04:50:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 060250 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) X(19) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 15(23) X(23) X(23) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 21(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 17(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 21(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 32(33) 15(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) THE VILLAGES 34 X 2( 2) 27(29) 8(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PATRICK AFB 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MIAMI FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 7 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 77 X(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) KEY WEST FL 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 14 26(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) NAPLES FL 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 2 19(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) VENICE FL 34 3 65(68) 7(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) VENICE FL 50 X 16(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) VENICE FL 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 2 37(39) 30(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) TAMPA FL 50 X 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 9(10) 50(60) 2(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 2( 3) 11(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 23
2021-07-06 04:50:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 060250 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND VILLA CLARA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...AND ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 82.3W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 82.3W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.0W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.9N 82.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.9N 83.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.6N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 34.0N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.9N 76.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 43.3N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 50.5N 52.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 82.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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