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Summary for Tropical Storm Rose (AT2/AL172021)
2021-09-21 22:36:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ROSE HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM.... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 21 the center of Rose was located near 22.5, -37.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 11
2021-09-21 22:36:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 212036 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 ...ROSE HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM.... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 37.7W ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 37.7 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The storm should gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of days and move more to the northeast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rose could decay into a tropical depression this evening and degenerate into a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Peter Graphics
2021-09-21 16:57:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 14:57:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 14:57:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-09-21 16:57:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 211457 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 Like the last several days, this morning's visible satellite imagery indicates that Peter has become increasingly detached from the remaining fragmented convection that is firing more than 100 n mi east of the center. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft has been sampling the storm this morning and so far has yet to find any flight level (925 mb) or SFMR winds above tropical storm force, although they weren't able to fly the full pattern in the northeastern quadrant. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt for this advisory, though the data so far suggests this estimate is generous. After taking a jog to the west overnight, Peter appears to have resumed a slower west-northwest motion at 290/8 kt. Over the next several days, Peter is expected to continue to slow down as it gradually turns to the north and then north-northeast as a deep-layer cyclone to the north is forecast to create a weakness in the current low-level ridging. The track guidance is in general agreement with this scenario, but differences remain in how sharp this rightward turn will be. The latest NHC track forecast has elected to stay close to the track consensus models TVCN and HCCA, and is a bit right of the previous track. After holding its own against a fairly hostile upper-level wind environment during the last 24-48 hours, Peter appears to finally be succumbing to the combination of 25-30 kt of deep-layer vertical wind shear helping to import sub-50 percent mid-level relative humidity over the center. This shear is not forecast to abate for the next 36-48 hours, and it now appears likely Peter will not be able to survive this unfavorable environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast now weakens Peter to a tropical depression in 12 hours, and degenerates it to a remnant low in 48 hours. However, given the current fragile state of the low-level circulation, it is distinctly possible that Peter may open up into a trough even sooner in the next 24-48 hours. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through today across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, portions of the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 19.9N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 20.7N 65.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 21.7N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 22.7N 67.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 23.4N 67.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0000Z 24.4N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 25.4N 66.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z 27.5N 64.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z 29.8N 62.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin
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Summary for Tropical Storm Peter (AT1/AL162021)
2021-09-21 16:54:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PETER WEAKENING AS IT PASSES BY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 21 the center of Peter was located near 19.9, -64.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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