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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2021-09-30 16:52:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 301452 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Victor (AT5/AL202021)

2021-09-30 16:52:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...VICTOR FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 2:00 PM CVT Thu Sep 30 the center of Victor was located near 9.5, -28.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 5

2021-09-30 16:52:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 301451 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 200 PM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 ...VICTOR FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 28.9W ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 28.9 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion over the eastern tropical Atlantic is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Victor could be near hurricane strength on Friday. A weakening trend is expected to begin over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-09-30 16:51:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 301451 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 28.9W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 105SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 28.9W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 28.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.2N 30.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.1N 32.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.4N 34.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.9N 35.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.7N 37.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.9N 39.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 23.2N 41.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 28.0N 42.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 28.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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