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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
2020-11-11 09:58:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 110857 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 2 6( 8) 14(22) 5(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 7(10) 20(30) 7(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 3( 4) 20(24) 8(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 13(14) 37(51) 6(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 7( 9) 26(35) 7(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 2 27(29) 31(60) 4(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) THE VILLAGES 50 X 3( 3) 12(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 2 14(16) 22(38) 5(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) ORLANDO FL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 4 14(18) 9(27) 1(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) PATRICK AFB 34 4 15(19) 9(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) FT PIERCE FL 34 4 10(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) W PALM BEACH 34 4 7(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) FT LAUDERDALE 34 4 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MIAMI FL 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 5 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 8 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NAPLES FL 34 36 8(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) FT MYERS FL 34 15 13(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) VENICE FL 34 69 17(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) VENICE FL 50 3 12(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) VENICE FL 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 28 50(78) 7(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) TAMPA FL 50 1 25(26) 5(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) TAMPA FL 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 5 47(52) 20(72) 1(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 12(12) 18(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 3 7(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 290N 850W 34 4 12(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-11-11 09:55:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 110855 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 Convection associated with Theta has decreased further this morning, with strong southwesterly shear displacing the remaining convection to the north of the center. Based on the decreased organization, the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 55 kt. Theta has continued to slow its forward speed, with the initial motion now 075/7. The cyclone is being steered by the southern part of the mid-latitude westerlies to the north of a mid-level ridge, and this general motion should continue for the next 72 h or so. After that time, the global models suggest that the cyclone should shear apart, with the remnant low-level circulation moving northeastward on the southeast side of a deep-layer cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. There has been little change in the guidance since the previous advisory, and the new official forecast track is similar to the previous track. While the cyclone is currently experiencing strong shear, the global models show that this might diminish somewhat during the next 72 h as Theta moves into an area of light winds near an upper-level trough axis. This, combined with sufficient instability for deep convection, should allow the storm to change little in strength during this time. After 72 h, strong mid- to upper-level northerly flow should cause the system to weaken as the convection dissipates and the upper-level portion of the storm is pushed off to the south. The new intensity forecast is lowered a bit from the previous forecast, and it lies in the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 29.4N 34.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 29.9N 33.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 30.8N 29.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 31.3N 26.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 31.8N 24.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 32.1N 23.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 32.5N 21.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 34.0N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 44
2020-11-11 09:55:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 110855 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO YANKEETOWN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO YANKEETOWN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DRY TORTUGAS * BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.1W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.1W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 84.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.9N 83.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.2N 82.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.2N 81.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.9N 79.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 84.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 11/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-11 09:55:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 9:00 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 the center of Theta was located near 29.4, -34.7 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 6
2020-11-11 09:55:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 110855 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 ...THETA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 34.7W ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 34.7 West. Theta is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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