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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-11-12 03:52:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 120252 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 31.4W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 100SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 330SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 31.4W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 31.9W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.5N 29.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.0N 27.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.1N 25.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.8N 23.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.4N 21.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.2N 20.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 31.2N 19.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 35.6N 18.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 31.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Eta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-11-12 03:49:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 02:49:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-11-12 03:49:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 02:49:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 47
2020-11-12 03:46:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 120246 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Deep convection intensified over the northern portion of the circulation of Eta over the past few hours, however the overall cloud pattern has not become better organized this evening. Adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds are near 55 kt, with the central pressure holding about steady for now. Since the storm will be moving over progressively cooler waters, with strong west-southwesterly shear and some incursions of drier air, gradual weakening is likely up to landfall tomorrow morning. A more rapid weakening is likely after the center crosses the coast tomorrow. The dynamical guidance does not indicate significant restrengthening after Eta emerges into the Atlantic within 24 hours, although some baroclinic forcing could allow the system to maintain its intensity for awhile. The cyclone is likely to be absorbed by a frontal zone in 60-72 hours if not sooner. Center fixes indicate that the motion continues to be just a little to the east of due north, or 010/10 kt. A slight turn toward the right is expected soon, and over the next couple of days Eta should move north-northeastward to northeastward, ahead of a broad mid-level trough, until dissipation. The official track forecast follows the general trajectory of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus, but is somewhat slower than the consensus guidance in deference to the latest GFS prediction. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected tonight and early Thursday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwanee River, and are possible tonight on Thursday from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta. 3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue to spread northward across West and Central Florida through Thursday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 28.3N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 29.7N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 13/0000Z 31.8N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 13/1200Z 33.7N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1200Z 37.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 47
2020-11-12 03:45:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 120245 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 12 21(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) WAYCROSS GA 34 5 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MAYPORT NS FL 34 22 22(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) MAYPORT NS FL 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 25 15(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) GAINESVILLE FL 34 88 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) GAINESVILLE FL 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 20 7(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) THE VILLAGES 34 93 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) THE VILLAGES 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) COCOA BEACH FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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