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Subtropical Storm Ana Graphics
2021-05-23 04:51:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 May 2021 02:51:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 May 2021 02:51:50 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-05-23 04:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat May 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 230251 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 1100 PM AST Sat May 22 2021 Ana continues to produce a small, but concentrated area of moderate convection near its center. The storm remains embedded in a large-scale upper-level trough axis, and convection near the center has not been deep or expansive enough to result in significant upper-level anticyclonic outflow. This structure suggests that the system remains subtropical. However, scatterometer imagery also indicates that Ana's radius of maximum winds is very small. A recent METOP-B ASCAT pass at 0054 UTC had a peak wind retrieval of 36 kt just southeast of Ana's center. Due to the small size of Ana's wind field and allowing for some undersampling of this instrument, the initial intensity was bumped up to 40 kt for this advisory. Ana has begun to accelerate to the northeast and its initial motion is now 050/8 kt. A continued northeastward motion at an increasing forward speed is expected as deep-layer southwesterly steering flow increases between a deepening mid-latitude trough to the northwest and a subtropical high to the southeast. The upper-level trough axis that Ana remains centered in has kept the tiny cyclone in a small region of light upper-level flow, allowing convection to persist near the center. However, as Ana accelerates northeastward, this trough axis will gradually decay and upper-level northerly flow is expected to increase after 12 h. The resulting increase in northeasterly shear will import dry mid-latitude air and likely strip away the remaining convection associated with Ana by tomorrow night. The latest intensity forecast calls for slow weakening after 12 h with dissipation by 48 h, though it is possible that Ana could dissipate earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 35.0N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 35.8N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 37.5N 56.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 41.1N 50.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Ana (AT1/AL012021)
2021-05-23 04:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANA A BIT STRONGER AND MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat May 22 the center of Ana was located near 35.0, -61.4 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Ana Public Advisory Number 4
2021-05-23 04:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat May 22 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 230249 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ana Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 1100 PM AST Sat May 22 2021 ...ANA A BIT STRONGER AND MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.0N 61.4W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 61.4 West. The storm is moving a bit faster toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). Ana is expected to accelerate further to the northeast on Sunday. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased slightly to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next 24 hours and Ana is expected to dissipate by Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-05-23 04:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN MAY 23 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 230247 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012021 0300 UTC SUN MAY 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 61.4W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 61.4W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 61.8W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.8N 60.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 37.5N 56.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 41.1N 50.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N 61.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
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