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Subtropical Storm Alpha Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-09-18 22:52:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 660 FONT14 KNHC 182052 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 8.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Subtropical Storm Alpha (AT4/AL242020)
2020-09-18 22:51:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ALPHA MAKES LANDFALL IN PORTUGAL... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY... As of 9:00 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 the center of Alpha was located near 40.4, -8.4 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Alpha Public Advisory Number 2
2020-09-18 22:51:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 182051 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alpha Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 900 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 ...ALPHA MAKES LANDFALL IN PORTUGAL... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.4N 8.4W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NNE OF LISBON PORTUGAL MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Portugal should monitor the progress of Alpha. Additional information on this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alpha was located near latitude 40.4 North, longitude 8.4 West. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next day or so. Alpha should move across northern Portugal and Spain before dissipating on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The storm should weaken into a depression overnight and a remnant low pressure area on Saturday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...Information on wind hazards from Alpha can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. RAINFALL...Alpha is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) of rainfall, with isolated amounts of 3 inches (75 mm) over the northern portion of Portugal and into west-central Spain through Saturday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Subtropical Storm Alpha Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-18 22:49:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 248 WTNT24 KNHC 182049 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALPHA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS FROM THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT WWW.IPMA.PT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 8.4W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 8.4W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 9.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 42.1N 6.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.4N 8.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Subtropical Storm Alpha Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-18 18:34:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 430 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 181634 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Alpha Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 430 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 The small low pressure area that has been rotating around a larger extratropical low in the far northeastern Atlantic has become better organized this morning. Moderate-to-deep convection has persisted near the center since last night, scatterometer data shows a closed 40-kt low, and radar images from Portugal show a definite organized convective pattern. While the system is still in the cyclonic envelope of the large extratropical low and likely neutral- or cold-core, it has developed enough tropical characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt in accordance with the scatterometer data, assuming some undersampling for this small system. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall in Portugal during the next couple of hours. Global models show the small low moving northeastward at about 15 kt for the next 24 hours before dissipating over northern Spain or the Bay of Biscay. The track and intensity forecasts are consistent with the consensus guidance. Additional information on the hazards from this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1630Z 39.9N 9.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 41.5N 7.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 19/1200Z 44.2N 4.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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