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Tropical Storm KAREN Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-10-03 22:50:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 032050 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 400 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF KAREN REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...AS THE CENTER HAS BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO ANALYZE ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER KAREN...AND DRY AIR IS PRESENT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DESPITE THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS...KAREN CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS JUST MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS FROM BOTH THE NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55 KT. MODERATE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS KAREN APPROACHES THE GULF COAST...BUT THE STORM COULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. KAREN SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY ABOUT 4 DAYS AND ABSORBED BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE CONFIDENT 330/10 BASED ON AIRCRAFT FIXES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS KAREN WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE EAST/WEST SPREAD...WITH THE HWRF AND GFS TO THE EAST AND THE ECMWF TO THE WEST. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE WEST ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE BUT STILL LIES A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE LATEST TCVA CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE THROUGH LANDFALL. THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. GIVEN THE NEW NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 23.3N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 24.6N 89.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 26.2N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 27.6N 89.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 28.8N 89.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 32.0N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/1800Z 36.0N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm KAREN Forecast Advisory Number 3
2013-10-03 22:48:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 032047 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 88.5W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 88.5W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 88.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 24.6N 89.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 26.2N 89.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.6N 89.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.8N 89.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 36.0N 80.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 88.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Storm KAREN (AT2/AL122013)
2013-10-03 22:48:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 the center of KAREN was located near 23.3, -88.5 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm KAREN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2013-10-03 22:48:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 032047 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 3 19 43 NA TROP DEPRESSION X 4 3 12 32 31 NA TROPICAL STORM 73 67 55 62 44 20 NA HURRICANE 27 29 41 23 5 6 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 26 27 35 20 4 6 NA HUR CAT 2 1 2 5 3 1 1 NA HUR CAT 3 X X 1 X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 60KT 65KT 60KT 40KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 13(18) 3(21) X(21) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 12(17) 3(20) X(20) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 16(26) 1(27) X(27) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 13(25) X(25) X(25) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 20(33) 1(34) X(34) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) X(19) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 3(23) X(23) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 11(23) 27(50) X(50) X(50) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 8(10) 14(24) 14(38) 14(52) X(52) X(52) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 15(28) 19(47) 1(48) X(48) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) 16(36) 14(50) X(50) X(50) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X 6( 6) 14(20) 16(36) 11(47) 1(48) X(48) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 2 10(12) 28(40) 16(56) 10(66) X(66) X(66) BURAS LA 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 34 6 31(37) 32(69) 7(76) 4(80) X(80) X(80) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 5( 5) 26(31) 8(39) 3(42) 1(43) X(43) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 7( 8) 15(23) 13(36) 8(44) X(44) X(44) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 4 20(24) 27(51) 6(57) 3(60) X(60) X(60) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 5( 5) 13(18) 4(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 7(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 5(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 6( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm KAREN Public Advisory Number 3
2013-10-03 22:48:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 032047 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 400 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 88.5W ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE NOAA AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS SOON AS FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...2 TO 4 FT EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 2 FT APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE... AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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