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Tropical Storm KAREN Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-10-04 22:40:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 042040 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 400 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 AFTER A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KAREN IS AGAIN EXPOSED WEST OF THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY OF KAREN REMAINS 45 KT...AND A CENTER DROP FROM THE PLANE REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. MODERATE SHEAR AND DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OVERALL INTENSITY CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH SHORT TERM CHANGES IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN SOME SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION...AND SHOW THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING ENTIRELY IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IN PARTICULAR THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH ITS FORECAST OF KAREN AFTER DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET...WHICH SHOWED 200-MB WINDS WEST OF KAREN STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...WERE INCORPORATED INTO THE 12Z ANALYSIS. AFTER 24 HOURS...KAREN COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DUE TO AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...BUT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT KAREN COULD BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AND WEAKEN. THE INITIAL MOTION OF KAREN HAS VARIED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE CONVECTION WAS TO THE CENTER. AFTER MOVING MORE NORTHWARD EARLIER THE AFTERNOON THE CENTER HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD AS IT BECAME EXPOSED. SMOOTHING THROUGH THESE SHORT TERM VARIATIONS...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/06. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE HEADING OF THE STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED WITH THE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO TREND SLOWER OVERALL. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY 24 HOURS AND THEN A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN BY 36 HOURS AS KAREN FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THE SLOWER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS FASTER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE ECMWF AND GFS AFTER 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST...AND THEREFORE THE DISTRIBUTION OF IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...REMAINS LOW. GIVEN THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND DISCONTINUED ELSEWHERE. THE 12Z HWRF RUN SHOWED CONSIDERABLY LESS INTENSIFICATION WITH KAREN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AFTER ASSIMILATING DATA FROM THE FROM THE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR. THIS MARKS THE FIRST TIME DOPPLER RADAR DATA HAVE BEEN ASSIMILATIED INTO AN OPERATIONAL HURRICANE MODEL IN REAL TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 25.9N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 26.9N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 27.9N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 28.8N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 29.9N 87.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 33.0N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm KAREN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2013-10-04 22:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 042039 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 4 10 31 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 4 17 16 24 34 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 93 76 69 56 31 NA NA HURRICANE 2 5 11 9 5 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 5 10 8 5 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 1 NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) X(24) X(24) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 18(25) X(25) X(25) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 13(30) X(30) X(30) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 11(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 16(22) 13(35) X(35) X(35) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 15(29) 7(36) X(36) X(36) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 6( 9) 14(23) 19(42) 5(47) X(47) X(47) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 2 5( 7) 9(16) 11(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 2 9(11) 12(23) 7(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 3 9(12) 13(25) 4(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) STENNIS MS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 8 18(26) 21(47) 5(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) BURAS LA 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 29 16(45) 13(58) 3(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 4 13(17) 12(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 29 22(51) 11(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) GFMX 280N 910W 50 1 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 2 7( 9) 6(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 7( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Summary for Tropical Storm KAREN (AT2/AL122013)
2013-10-04 22:38:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN DISORGANIZED... ...HURRICANE WATCH DISCONTINUED... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 the center of KAREN was located near 25.9, -90.3 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm KAREN Forecast Advisory Number 7
2013-10-04 22:38:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 042038 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO DESTIN FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ELSEWHERE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 90.3W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 90.3W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 90.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 26.9N 90.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 27.9N 90.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 28.8N 89.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 29.9N 87.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 33.0N 82.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 90.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm KAREN Public Advisory Number 7
2013-10-04 22:38:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 042038 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 400 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 ...KAREN DISORGANIZED... ...HURRICANE WATCH DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 90.3W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO DESTIN FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ELSEWHERE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER...3 TO 5 FT EAST OF THE PEARL RIVER TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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