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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-13 13:19:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 131119 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the western Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa near the coasts of Guinea and Sierra Leone. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
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tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-13 07:43:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
129 ABNT20 KNHC 130543 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the western Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa later today. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Showers and thunderstorms remain very limited in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure over the far northeastern Atlantic, about midway between the Azores and Portugal. Tropical or subtropical development of this system is no longer expected while it moves eastward and then inland over Portugal by late Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-13 01:28:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 122328 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Showers and thunderstorms are very limited in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure over the far northeastern Atlantic, located a few hundred miles east of the Azores. Significant development of this system appears unlikely during the next day or so while it moves slowly eastward. By late Tuesday, the system is forecast to move inland over Portugal. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-12 19:32:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 121732 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located just west of the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands has diminished since this morning. Environmental conditions have become unfavorable, and significant development of this system is no longer expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located over the far northeastern Atlantic a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next day or so. After that time, the system is forecast to move inland over Portugal ending any further development chance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the southeastern or central Bahamas in a few days resulting from a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week several hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-12 13:42:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
415 ABNT20 KNHC 121142 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Bay of Campeche have increased overnight and are showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Additional development is possible through the middle of next week if the system remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance as watches may be required for portions of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and Texas later this morning or this afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the system this morning. Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to produce heavy rain across portions of southern Mexico today, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late today, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, with a heavy rain threat continuing across those coastal areas through the middle of the week. Localized significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development, and the chances of tropical depression formation are decreasing while the system moves westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. By the middle of the week, stronger upper-level winds and marginally warm ocean temperatures are expected to limit additional development. This disturbance could bring locally heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next couple of days. After that time, the system is forecast to move inland over Portugal ending any further development chance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the southeastern or central Bahamas in a few days resulting from a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week several hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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